Legal Cannabis Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report By Source (Marijuana, Hemp), By Derivative (CBD, THC), By End Use (Medical Use, Recreational Use, Industrial Use), By Region, And Segment Forecasts, 2023 - 2030

Research Methodology

A three-pronged approach was followed for deducing the legal cannabis market estimates and forecasts. The process has three steps: information procurement, analysis, and validation. The whole process is cyclical, and steps repeat until the estimates are validated. The three steps are explained in detail below:

Information procurement: Information procurement is one of the most extensive and important stages in our research process, and quality data is critical for accurate analysis. We followed a multi-channel data collection process for legal cannabis market to gather the most reliable and current information possible.

• We buy access to paid databases such as Hoover’s and Factiva for company financials, industry information, white papers, industry journals, SME journals, and more.
• We tap into Grand View’s proprietary database of data points and insights from active and archived monitoring and reporting.
• We conduct primary research with industry experts through questionnaires and one-on-one phone interviews.
• We pull from reliable secondary sources such as white papers and government statistics, published by organizations like WHO, NGOs, World Bank, etc., Key Opinion Leaders (KoL) publications, company filings, investor documents, and more.
• We purchase and review investor analyst reports, broker reports, academic commentary, government quotes, and wealth management publications for insightful third-party perspectives.

Analysis: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilized different methods of legal cannabis market data depending on the type of information we’re trying to uncover in our research.

• Market Research Efforts: Bottom-up Approach for estimating and forecasting demand size and opportunity, top-down Approach for new product forecasting and penetration, and combined approach of both Bottom-up and Top-down for full coverage analysis.

• Value-Chain-Based Sizing & Forecasting: Supply-side estimates for understanding potential revenue through competitive benchmarking, forecasting, and penetration modeling.

• Demand-side estimates for identifying parent and ancillary markets, segment modeling, and heuristic forecasting.

• Qualitative Functional Deployment (QFD) Modelling for market share assessment.

Market formulation and validation: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilize different methods of data analysis depending on the type of information we’re trying to uncover in our research.

• Market Formulation: This step involves the finalization of market numbers. This step on an internal level is designed to manage outputs from the Data Analysis step.

• Data Normalization: The final market estimates and forecasts are then aligned and sent to industry experts, in-panel quality control managers for validation.

• This step also entails the finalization of the report scope and data representation pattern.

• Validation: The process entails multiple levels of validation. All these steps run in parallel, and the study is forwarded for publishing only if all three levels render validated results.

Legal Cannabis Market Categorization:

The legal cannabis market was categorized into four segments, namely source (Marijuana, Hemp), derivative (CBD, THC), end use (Medical Use, Recreational Use, Industrial Use), and regions (North America, Europe, Asia,  Oceania, Latin America and Caribbean and Africa).

Segment Market Methodology:

The legal cannabis market was segmented into source, derivative, end use, and regions. The demand at a segment level was deduced using a funnel method. Concepts like the TAM, SAM, SOM, etc., were put into practice to understand the demand. We at GVR deploy three methods to deduce market estimates and determine forecasts. These methods are explained below:

Market research approaches: Bottom-up

• Demand estimation of each product across countries/regions summed up to from the total market.

• Variable analysis for demand forecast.

• Demand estimation via analyzing paid database, and company financials either via annual reports or paid database.

• Primary interviews for data revalidation and insight collection.

Market research approaches: Top-down

• Used extensively for new product forecasting or analyzing penetration levels.

• Tool used invoice product flow and penetration models Use of regression multi-variant analysis for forecasting Involves extensive use of paid and public databases.

• Primary interviews and vendor-based primary research for variable impact analysis.

Market research approaches: Combined

• This is the most common method. We apply concepts from both the top-down and bottom-up approaches to arrive at a viable conclusion.

Regional Market Methodology:

The legal cannabis market was analyzed at a regional level. The globe was divided into North America, Europe, Asia,  Oceania, Latin America and Caribbean and Africa, keeping in focus variables like consumption patterns, export-import regulations, consumer expectations, etc. These regions were further divided into twenty-one countries, namely, the U.S.; Canada; the UK.; Germany; Italy; Poland; Czech Republic; Switzerland; Croatia; Netherlands; Spain; China; Japan; India; Thailand; Australia; New Zealand; Brazil; Mexico; Uruguay; Colombia.

All three above-mentioned market research methodologies were applied to arrive at regional-level conclusions. The regions were then summed up to form the global market.

Legal cannabis market companies & financials:

The legal cannabis market was analyzed via companies operating in the sector. Analyzing these companies and cross-referencing them to the demand equation helped us validate our assumptions and conclusions. Key market players analyzed include:

• CANOPY GROWTH CORPORATION. - Canopy Growth Corporation, a medical cannabis producer and distributor, operates through its subsidiaries to produce, package, and distribute marijuana to various end users. The company has been publicly traded on TXSV under the symbol "WEED" and on the NYSE under the trading symbol "CGC" since May 24, 2018. The company's core brands include Tweed, Inc., Bedrocan Canada, and Mettrum (now Spectrum Cannabis). Tweed Main Street is the platform through which the company sells and promotes its diverse product offerings, including edibles, beverages, vapes, dried flowers, oils, concentrates, soft gel capsules, and hemp.

• APHRIA, INC. - Aphria, Inc. is a renowned producer and distributor of medical marijuana and its various derivatives, including cannabis oils. In addition to this, the company offers valuable consultation services to both patients and physicians. Aphria, Inc. makes its products available to customers through an online store or by phone. The company specializes in marketing different types of marijuana, namely Sativa, Indica, and hybrid varieties. Aphria, Inc. is publicly listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the U.S. OTCQB Venture Market Stock Exchange. The company has several significant subsidiaries, including Broken Coast Cannabis Ltd., FL-Group, ASG Pharma Ltd., Cannan Growers, Inc., and Pure Natures Wellness, Inc.

• AURORA CANNABIS - Aurora Cannabis is a renowned company that specializes in the production and distribution of dried cannabis and cannabis oil. They offer a wide range of cannabis strains, each with varying levels of THC and CBD. Aurora Cannabis deals with Indica, Sativa, and hybrid varieties of cannabis, ensuring that they cater to the diverse needs of their customers. In addition to their products, the company also provides valuable consultation and information on cannabis to patients. What sets Aurora Cannabis apart is its vertical integration, which encompasses cultivation, development, research, and cannabis supply to retailers. This comprehensive approach allows them to maintain control over the entire production process, ensuring the highest quality standards are met. Operating in 24 countries as of July 2019, Aurora Cannabis has established itself as a global player in the industry. They have forged strategic agreements with various companies across different sectors, including pharmaceuticals, food and beverages, and others, to meet the growing demand for their cannabis supply.

• TILRAY - Tilray, a privately owned organization, is engaged in the cultivation, processing, research, and distribution of medicinal cannabis. The company operates a GMP-certified facility that handles cannabis flowers and various extracts. Its clientele comprises pharmacies, physicians, patients, hospitals, government entities, and researchers. Notably, Tilray holds the distinction of being the initial licensed producer to legally export cannabis products from North America to Australia, Europe, and New Zealand, specifically for commercial and research purposes. The company's range of offerings encompasses whole marijuana flower, ground marijuana, as well as marijuana drops and capsules. Additionally, Tilray offers accessories like vaporizers and storage containers.

• GW PHARMACEUTICALS, PLC - GW Pharmaceuticals, plc is a biopharmaceutical company that specializes in the development, commercialization, and discovery of innovative therapeutic cannabinoid products. The company's primary cannabinoid product, EPIDIOLEX, is a liquid formulation used to treat seizures. Additionally, GW Pharmaceuticals develops and markets Sativex, an oromucosal spray used to alleviate spasticity caused by multiple sclerosis. EPIDIOLEX has been granted Orphan Drug designation by the U.S. FDA for its effectiveness in treating Dravet syndrome, Lennox-Gastaut syndrome, infantile spasms, and tuberous sclerosis complex. Furthermore, it has received Fast Track designation from the FDA and Orphan Drug Designation from the European Medicines Agency for its use in treating Dravet syndrome. With a strong focus on orphan pediatric neurologic conditions, the company possesses a robust pipeline of other cannabinoid products.

• THE CRONOS GROUP - The Cronos Group is a parent organization that consists of multiple companies that either possess a license or are in the process of acquiring one to cultivate and process medical cannabis and engage in related businesses. The Cronos Group's affiliated companies have been granted licenses by Health Canada. Moreover, the Cronos Group has established a network of licensed producers throughout Canada, including The Peace Naturals Project, Original BC Ltd., and Whistler Medical Cannabis Corporation. Additionally, the company distributes medical cannabis to pharmacies.

• INSYS THERAPEUTICS, INC. - In the United States, Insys Therapeutics is a pharmaceutical company specializing in commercializing and developing innovative supportive products. The company has successfully introduced two products, Dronabinol SG Capsule and Subsys. These products have proven advantageous in utilizing the sublingual spray drug delivery technology and showcasing the company's manufacturing and formulation capabilities in relation to dronabinol. In 2012, Insys Therapeutics launched Subsys, an efficient spray that effectively treats breakthrough cancer pain in opioid-tolerant patients.

• VIVO CANNABIS, INC. - Vivo Cannabis, Inc. is a Canadian-based company that operates in the cannabis industry. It is a vertically integrated company, meaning it is involved in all aspects of the business, from cultivation to distribution. The company has obtained sales and production licenses from Health Canada, allowing it to operate legally in the country. Vivo Cannabis has licensed facilities in Ontario and British Columbia, where it operates. Furthermore, the company is focused on expanding its presence in the market by increasing its production capacity. It is also exploring opportunities for product development and domestic and international partnerships.

• CARA THERAPEUTICS, INC. - Cara Therapeutics, Inc. is a biotechnology company in the clinical stage specializing in developing and commercializing innovative chemical compounds. These compounds specifically target the kappa opioid receptors to alleviate pain and pruritus. Additionally, the company is actively involved in creating products that offer therapeutic benefits in treating inflammation.

• SUNDIAL GROWES, INC. - Sundial Growers, a publicly traded corporation, holds a license to produce cannabis in Canada. Within its indoor facilities, the company focuses on cultivating small quantities of cannabis. Furthermore, Sundial Growers manages the Spiritleaf retail network to provide cannabis for adult or recreational purposes. Additionally, the company actively pursues strategic capital through direct and indirect partnerships and investments.

Value chain-based sizing & forecasting

Supply Side Estimates

• Company revenue estimation via referring to annual reports, investor presentations, and Hoover’s.

• Segment revenue determination via variable analysis and penetration modeling.

• Competitive benchmarking to identify market leaders and their collective revenue shares.

• Forecasting via analyzing commercialization rates, pipelines, market initiatives, distribution networks, etc.

Demand side estimates

• Identifying parent markets and ancillary markets

• Segment penetration analysis to obtain pertinent

• revenue/volume

• Heuristic forecasting with the help of subject matter experts

• Forecasting via variable analysis

Legal Cannabis Market Report Objectives:

• Understanding market dynamics (in terms of drivers, restraints, & opportunities) in the countries.

• Understanding trends & variables in the individual countries & their impact on growth and using analytical tools to provide high-level insights into the market dynamics and the associated growth pattern.

• Understanding market estimates and forecasts (with the base year as 2022, historic information from 2016 to 2021, and forecast from 2023 to 2030). Regional estimates & forecasts for each category are available and are summed up to form the global market estimates.

Legal Cannabis Market Report Assumptions:

• The report provides market value for the base year 2022 and a yearly forecast till 2030 in terms of revenue/volume or both. The market for each of the segment outlooks has been provided on region & country basis for the above-mentioned forecast period.

• The key industry dynamics, major technological trends, and application markets are evaluated to understand their impact on the demand for the forecast period. The growth rates were estimated using correlation, regression, and time-series analysis.

• We have used the bottom-up approach for market sizing, analyzing key regional markets, dynamics, & trends for various products and end-users. The total market has been estimated by integrating the country markets.

• All market estimates and forecasts have been validated through primary interviews with the key industry participants.

• Inflation has not been accounted for to estimate and forecast the market.

• Numbers may not add up due to rounding off.

• Europe consists of EU-8, Central & Eastern Europe, along with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

• Asia Pacific includes South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania (Australia & New Zealand).

• Latin America includes Central American countries and the South American continent

• Middle East includes Western Asia (as assigned by the UN Statistics Division) and the African continent.

Primary Research

GVR strives to procure the latest and unique information for reports directly from industry experts, which gives it a competitive edge. Quality is of utmost importance to us, therefore every year we focus on increasing our experts’ panel. Primary interviews are one of the critical steps in identifying recent market trends and scenarios. This process enables us to justify and validate our market estimates and forecasts to our clients. With more than 8,000 reports in our database, we have connected with some key opinion leaders across various domains, including healthcare, technology, consumer goods, and the chemical sector. Our process starts with identifying the right platform for a particular type of report, i.e., emails, LinkedIn, seminars, or telephonic conversation, as every report is unique and requires a differentiated approach.

We send out questionnaires to different experts from various regions/ countries, which is dependent on the following factors:

• Report/Market scope: If the market study is global, we send questionnaires to industry experts across various regions, including North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and MEA.

• Market Penetration: If the market is driven by technological advancements, population density, disease prevalence, or other factors, we identify experts and send out questionnaires based on region or country dominance.

The time to start receiving responses from industry experts varies based on how niche or well-penetrated the market is. Our reports include a detailed chapter on the KoL opinion section, which helps our clients understand the perspective of experts already in the market space.