The Autonomous Cars/Driverless Cars Market demand is expected to reach 138,089 units by 2024. This growth is attributed to the need to curb the rising number of accidents caused particularly due to human error. According to the International Organization for Road Accident Prevention, more than 90% of road accidents across the globe are caused primarily due to human errors. National Highway Traffic Safety Association (NHTSA) estimated that the adoption of autonomous vehicles, also known as driverless vehicles, in the U.S. alone could save more than 69 lives every year. The need for ubiquitous connectivity calls for the rapid deployment of the product over the next seven years. The proliferation of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) in new automobiles, particularly in the U.S., Germany, and the UK, is also anticipated to significantly spur the demand over the forecast period.
Global Autonomous Cars/Driverless Cars Market, 2017 - 2024 (Units)
The U.S., being one of the early adopters of the innovative technology, is expected to swiftly witness traction in the adoption of driverless vehicles during the forecast period. In 2017, the major manufacturers, including Alphabet Inc., Tesla Motors Inc., Ford Motors Corporation, and General Motors, might launch a limited number of vehicles into beta testing for customers. Google Inc., which changed to Alphabet Inc. in October 2015, started the development of the fully autonomous vehicle in 2009. Since then, several new automobiles and technology giants, including The Volvo Group, Nissan Motor Company Ltd., Apple Inc., Baidu, Inc., and Volkswagen AG, have been in the news for product developments. The governments worldwide need to change traffic regulations to incorporate self-driving vehicles on public roads as they handover the automobile’s control to the machine. According to the current traffic regulations, a driver must have full control over an automobile. Under these regulations, driverless automobiles are expected to witness a substantial resistance toothier adoption. However, governments in several countries, such as New Zealand and the U.S., are amending traffic regulations, thereby creating a way for the entry of driverless automobiles. These government efforts are expected to encourage the adoption of the product over the forecast period.
The driverless cars are expected to be launched in two phases: Phase 1 – beta testing or testing at the consumer’s end and Phase 2 –commercialized cars. Additionally, universities have taken a keen interest in the development of the technology and have collaborated with different manufacturers to instigate research. ADAS exhibits a huge potential to increase safety and reduce energy usage and congestion. Conventional manual driving imposes costs borne by the driver, including insurance, fuel, and depreciation, along with the considerable external costs or monetary fines. The development of the advanced GPS technology is expected to pave the way for driverless vehicles. The added features in the advanced GPS efficiently routes automobiles through traffic jams and makes driving easier. Peak time particularly leads to road congestion; as such, computerized systems will side-track a particular percentage of automobiles off the highways. This will subsequently cut down the travel time, reduce fuel consumption, and enhance productivity.
North America is estimated to witness a healthy demand for driverless cars in 2017, accounting for over 40% of the market share in the same year. In 2016, the U.S. government proposed a change in the automobile policy in order to reduce the time-to-market. The government has allowed the testing of driverless automobiles on public roads in several states under its new policy. Consumers in Europe are often more adaptive toward new technologies and the change in regulation, particularly in Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands, is expected to fuel the demand over the forecast period. Automobile manufacturers are keen to launch their products in countries with a lower population, including the Netherland and Sweden, which is anticipated to positively impact the market growth. In addition, China, Japan, and Singapore are also in the advanced phase of ADAS’ development that may pave the way for the adoption of self-driving cars. Several universities in these countries are helping manufacturers by providing technical knowledge and support. The aging population in Japan, wherein every one in four people are older than 65 years of age, is expected to be the key adopter of driverless cars in order to travel safely.
Competitive Market Share Insights
In the U.S., Alphabet, Inc. tested its product for more than 1.5 million miles, particularly in California, Texas, Washington D.C., and Arizona. However, an accident which occurred in February 2016 with a public bus may postpone the product launch. Tesla launched its semi-autonomous cars in 2015 through its latest models, Tesla Model S and Model X, and is anticipated to launch the driverless cars by 2020. The key automobile manufacturing companies are focusing on the inorganic growth by acquiring and collaborating with the autonomous system development companies. Furthermore, the prominent and large-scale technologies companies are analyzed to collaborate with the automobile manufacturers to reduce their cost of acquiring the automobile body to test their products. The key companies which are analyzed to dominate the market include Alphabet Inc., The Volvo Group, Tesla Motors, Inc., Nissan Motor Company Ltd., and Baidu Inc.
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