Fertilizers Monthly Price Assessment – October 2026

Fertilizers Pricing Intelligence - Executive Summary

Fertilizer prices in October were driven more by government decisions than by farm demand. India’s urea tender on 7^th October drew about 5.3 million tons of offers. The lowest offers were about 10% below the August tender and India secured only about 410 kilotons of the 1.7 million tons it sought. Chinese producers refused to sell at that level despite China had released a fourth export tranche of 1.5 to 2.0 million tons. Indian urea import prices fell 4.8% and Gulf urea fell by 5% to 7%. Egypt and Europe moved the other way, as European buyers stepped up purchases and Algeria told its producers to stop selling urea to France.

Phosphates and potash were weaker. China has nearly stopped exporting phosphates this year, which left more ammonium biphosphate (MAP) in its domestic market. Chinese MAP fell 9.3% in October. International prices barely moved. Potash eased on high stocks. Indian potassium chloride (MOP) arrivals in September were 26% lower than in August and the China–Russia contract was still unsettled. Chinese MOP fell 2.3%.

Ammonium sulphate was the strongest product of the month. This is mainly because of September price rally. Chinese prices rose through September, so the October average was 3.9% higher, even though spot prices fell 5.8% during October as demand slowed. Gulf importers paid more because freight and war-risk insurance into the Gulf stayed high. Qatar rose 4.4% and Saudi Arabia 3.8%. Cheaper sulphur with ADNOC’s October price 7.3% lower, began to ease costs for phosphate and sulphate producers.

Key Price Developments & Insights

• India’s urea tender on 7 October received about 5.3 million tons of offers, with the lowest about 10% below the August tender. India bought only about 410 kilotons of the 1.7 million tons it wanted.

• Chinese urea producers would not sell at the netback implied by India’s tender. Chinese prilled urea instead traded about 8% above that netback and firmed a further 2.2% between mid-month and 23rd October.

• Egyptian granular urea firmed as European buyers returned Algeria, which supplies around 30% of France’s urea imports told its producers to stop shipping to France, causing price surge in France.

• Chinese MAP fell 9.3% as phosphate export restrictions kept supply in the domestic market. International MAP held steady or eased.

• Gulf sulphur prices fell, with ADNOC’s October price 7.3% below September. Chinese sulphur fell 17.8%, which reduced costs for phosphate producers.

Top Performing Fertilizers Commodity

• Top Mover: Ammonium Sulphate

• Average MoM Growth (top 3 geographies): 4.0%

• Volatility Level: Medium

Nitrogen Fertilizers – Pricing Trends, October 2026

Nitrogen fertilizers moved in different directions depending on who was buying. Urea fell in markets tied to India and Asia. Indian import prices fell 4.8% after the low tender, and Gulf granular urea eased about 4% to 9% from September. Saudi Arabia fell 5.5%, the UAE 5.1% and Qatar 7.4%. Chinese domestic urea fell 1.4% on large stocks and weak farm demand. Urea rose in the markets that supply Europe. Egypt rose 1.8% and Europe 1.2%, as gas at its highest since December 2022 caused ammonia curtailments. Ammonium nitrate rose 2.4% in the U.S., where retail anhydrous ammonia rose 5% in mid-October.

Phosphate Fertilizers – Pricing Trends, October 2026

MAP fell sharply in China and was steady elsewhere. China has nearly stopped exporting phosphates this year and restrictions are not expected to ease before the end of 2026. That left more MAP at home and Chinese MAP fell 9.3%. International prices did not follow because global phosphate plants ran at only about 50% to 60% of capacity after sulphur costs rose sharply. OCP said its sulphur costs tripled in the first half. Brazilian MAP stayed flat, and Moroccan MAP was unchanged. Cheaper sulphur in November will ease producer costs as buyers are already switching to TSP and lower-phosphate blends.

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Potash Fertilizers – Pricing Trends, October 2026

Potash prices eased. Chinese MOP fell 2.3% as port stocks rose and the China–Russia contract for October was still not agreed. The Indian MOP contract was unchanged and Gulf importers paid more for freight, so Qatar rose 4.6% and the UAE 3.4%. Potassium nitrate and SOP followed MOP lower in China, at −2.5% and −1.4%, and SOP producers also gained from cheaper sulphuric acid.

Fertilizers Price Direction, By Geography And Fertilizers Group, November 2026

Fertilizers Pricing - Key Drivers

• India’s low urea tender meets Chinese resistance - The main price event in October was India’s urea tender on 7 October. It drew about 5.3 Mt of offers. The lowest were about 10% below the August tender and about 63% below the April tender, when the Hormuz disruption was at its worst. India wanted 1.7 Mt but secured only about 410 kt, because Chinese producers refused to sell at the implied netback. They had other outlets. Chinese prilled urea traded about 8% above the netback and firmed a further 2.2% in the second half of the month. India is expected to return with a tender for close to 2 Mt, with offers expected about 6% above the 7 October lows. The tender lowered Indian and Gulf prices for October, but it also showed that Chinese export prices have a floor.

• European gas and the Algeria–France dispute support nitrogen in the West - European nitrogen prices rose while Asian prices fell. European gas reached its highest level since December 2022 in October, which led some ammonia producers to cut output. Storage was only 74% full in mid-October. European urea production costs are high, so import demand increased and Egyptian granular offers firmed. Reuters reported on 23 October that Algeria had told its producers to stop shipping urea to France. Algeria supplies around 30% of France’s urea imports. French buyers will need to replace that supply from Egypt, the Gulf or elsewhere.

• China’s export restrictions split the phosphate market - China’s decision to stop most phosphate exports this year has split the phosphate market in two. In China, MAP stayed at home and prices fell 9.3% in October. Outside China, the loss of Chinese supply kept prices high, even though demand was weak. Global phosphate plants ran at only 50–60% of capacity because sulphur had been expensive, and Brazilian MAP held flat. Indian DAP prices were falling, however, reaching their lowest since April. China is expected to export about 2 Mt of phosphates in 2027, against almost nothing this year. If that happens, prices outside China will come under more pressure.

• Cheaper sulphur begins to ease phosphate costs - Sulphur was the most important cost change for phosphate and sulphate producers in October. Gulf producers cut their monthly prices, with ADNOC’s October price 7.3% below September. Spot cargoes also eased. In China, sulphur fell 17.8% and sulphuric acid 9.8%. OCP said its sulphur costs tripled in the first half of the year and its EBITDA fell 28.5%, so lower sulphur matters for Moroccan and other phosphate producers. The relief was not yet complete. Freight for sulphur cargoes from the Gulf to India was still about five times normal, because war-risk insurance remained high after renewed Hormuz strikes.

• High stocks and stalled contracts weigh on potash - Potash prices eased because stocks were high and the main buyers were waiting. Indian arrivals in September were 26% lower than in August and China and Russia had not agreed their October contract. Chinese port prices weakened before the Golden Week holiday and kept falling, with MOP down 2.3% in October. New capacity is still being added, as Vietnam’s Vinachem announced a 500 kt/yr MOP project in Laos on 12^th October. Gulf importers were the exception, paying 3–5% more because of freight costs.

Fertilizers - Commodity Coverage

Nitrogen Fertilizers

The nitrogen fertilizers category covers ammonium sulphate, ammonium nitrate, and urea. In October, urea fell in markets supplied through India’s tender and the Gulf and rose in Egypt and Europe on higher gas costs and the Algeria–France dispute. Ammonium sulphate rose on the monthly average but fell during October as Brazilian demand slowed.

Nitrogen Fertilizers Pricing - Key influencers

• Natural gas, coal, and ammonia costs

• Production rates, maintenance, and by-product availability

• Export access and major import tenders

• Agricultural purchasing and inventories

Phosphate Fertilizers

The phosphate fertilizers category covers monoammonium phosphate (MAP), also known as ammonium biphosphate. In October, Chinese MAP fell sharply because export restrictions kept supply in the domestic market. International prices held steady because global plant rates were low. Cheaper sulphur started to ease producers’ costs.

Phosphate Fertilizers Pricing - Key influencers

• Phosphate-rock and phosphoric-acid availability

• Sulphur and ammonia costs

• International trade and domestic supply

• Crop requirements and compound-fertilizer production

Potash Fertilizers

The potash fertilizers category covers muriate of potash (MOP), potassium nitrate, and sulphate of potash (SOP). In October, potash prices eased as stocks in Brazil and China were high and the China–Russia contract was still unsettled. Potassium nitrate and SOP followed MOP lower in China, while Gulf importers paid more for freight.

Potash Fertilizers Pricing - Key influencers

• Producer supply and port inventories

• Feedstock costs and processing economics

• International freight and import availability

• Application timing and crop-specific requirements

Regional Commentary

China - China’s fertilizer prices fell 1.8% on average, with 5 of the 7 products assessed lower. MAP fell 9.3% because phosphate export restrictions kept supply at home. Urea fell 1.4% as stocks were large and farm demand was weak. MOP fell 2.3% as port stocks rose. Ammonium sulphate was the exception, up 3.9% on the monthly average, although spot prices fell 5.8% during October as export demand slowed.

India - India’s urea import price fell 4.8% after the 7^th October tender, where the lowest offers came in about 10% below August. Only about 410 kt was secured against 1.7 Mt sought, so a new tender for close to 2 Mt is expected. Indian DAP fell to its lowest since April, and the MOP contract was unchanged. Ammonium sulphate and ammonium nitrate rose 3.6% and 3.0%, following higher Chinese prices in September.

Europe - European fertilizer prices were broadly flat on average, but nitrogen rose. Urea rose 1.2% and MOP 1.5%, while potassium nitrate fell 2.5% and SOP 1.6%. European gas reached its highest level and some ammonia plants cut output which increased import demand. The weaker euro reduced prices in dollar terms.

France - French fertilizer prices fell 0.4% on average, but urea rose 0.8%. The main development for France was Algeria’s instruction to its producers to stop shipping urea to France, reported by on 23^rd October. Algeria supplies around 30% of French urea imports. French importers will need to buy more from Egypt and other suppliers before the spring application season. That is likely to keep French urea above neighboring markets.

Germany - German fertilizer prices were broadly flat on average. Urea rose 1.5% and MOP 1.9%, while MAP, SOP and potassium nitrate fell. High gas prices are the main issue for Germany, where ammonia production is especially sensitive to gas costs. European gas reached its highest level since December 2022 in October, and storage was well below normal for the time of year. This kept German nitrogen prices from falling with world prices, even though farm demand was quiet after the autumn application.

UK - UK fertilizer prices were unchanged on average. UK-produced and imported ammonium nitrate rose about 0.3% week on week on 16^th October, while granular urea, MOP and DAP were broadly steady. Our UK urea assessment rose 1.3% and MOP 1.6%, while potassium nitrate fell 2.4% and SOP 1.8%. UK buyers were mostly waiting for spring prices.

U.S. - U.S. fertilizer prices rose 0.5% on average. Retail anhydrous ammonia rose 5% month on month in the week of 12th to 16th October. Retail urea was 13% higher than a year earlier. U.S. import urea fell 3.0%, however, because of weak buying with imports at an eight-year low, left more cargoes for other markets.

Saudi Arabia - Saudi fertilizer prices were broadly unchanged on average. Granular urea fell 5.5% as Middle East prices dropped about 4–9% after India’s low tender. Ammonium sulphate and MOP, which Saudi Arabia imports, rose 3.8% and 3.6%. Freight and war-risk insurance into the Gulf stayed high after renewed Hormuz strikes in mid-October.

UAE - UAE fertilizer prices rose 0.2% on average. Urea fell 5.1%, in line with Middle East granular prices, while imported ammonium sulphate and MOP rose 3.7% and 3.4% because freight costs were high. ADNOC cut its October sulphur price by 7.3%, which will lower costs for phosphate producers that buy UAE sulphur.

Egypt - Egyptian fertilizer prices were broadly unchanged on average. Urea rose 1.8% as European buyers came in and France needed to replace Algerian supply. Egypt sells most of its urea exports to Europe, so it benefits when European gas costs rise. The Egyptian pound averaged 3.8% weaker against the dollar in October, which raised local-currency revenues for exporters.

Morocco - Moroccan fertilizer prices fell 0.5% on average. MAP was flat because international phosphate prices held steady. The main change for Morocco was cheaper sulphur. OCP reported that its sulphur costs tripled in the first half and its EBITDA fell 28.5%, so the October cuts in Gulf sulphur prices will help margins. The dirham weakened 3.7% against the dollar, which also helps exporters.

Analyst Commentary

“October’s fertilizer market was shaped by policy. India’s low urea tender pulled Asian and Gulf urea down. The Chinese producers refused to follow. China’s own export restrictions kept phosphates split between a weak domestic market and a firm international one. In Europe, high gas costs and Algeria’s halt to French urea sales pushed nitrogen up. Potash eased on high stocks, and sulphur, the main cost for phosphate producers, finally started to fall. For November, we expect India’s next tender to set the direction for urea. We expect phosphates and potash to drift lower as cheaper sulphur and high stocks feed through.”

Senior Fertilizers Analyst

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