Fertilizers Monthly Price Assessment – July 2026

Fertilizers Pricing Intelligence - Executive Summary

Fertilizer markets displayed contrasting regional trends during July 2026. China’s domestic market remained generally soft across nitrogen fertilizers, with urea weakening gradually and ammonium sulfate experiencing only a temporary mid-month recovery before easing again. In contrast, the wider seaborne urea market strengthened as constrained Middle Eastern exports, higher European production costs and renewed importer activity tightened internationally available supply. This divergence showed that domestic Chinese availability and global replacement costs were moving under different market conditions.

Phosphate and potash fertilizers were comparatively stable. MAP moved within a narrow range after modest early-month variation, while MOP, potassium nitrate and SOP remained broadly stable to slightly weak. Adequate availability in major consuming markets and disciplined procurement limited upward movement, although phosphate producers and importers continued facing uncertainty around Sulphur, ammonia, freight and export availability.

Regional policy and procurement developments remained important. India maintained comfortable supplies during the Kharif season through domestic production, recent import tenders and long-term sourcing arrangements. Europe introduced emergency support for farmers facing elevated fertilizer and energy costs, while France implemented direct assistance for purchases of nitrogen fertilizers. These measures helped protect agricultural demand but also reflected continuing affordability pressure across the fertilizer value chain.

Key Price Developments & Insights

• Urea weakened in China during July, while the seaborne market strengthened as global availability remained tighter than domestic Chinese supply.

• Ammonium sulfate declined during the first part of the month, recovered briefly around mid-July and weakened again during the final week.

• MAP remained comparatively stable, reflecting balanced domestic availability and measured downstream procurement.

• MOP, potassium nitrate and SOP traded within relatively narrow ranges and displayed stable to slightly weaker movement.

• Government procurement, fertilizer affordability, Middle Eastern trade disruptions and cautious inventory management remained more influential than broad-based agricultural restocking. 

Top Performing Fertilizers Commodity

• Top Mover: Ammonium Biphosphate

• Average MoM Growth (top 3 geographies): 1.0%

• Volatility Level: Stable

Nitrogen Fertilizers – Pricing Trends, July 2026

Nitrogen fertilizers recorded the greatest regional divergence during July. China’s urea market weakened gradually through most of the month, with only limited temporary stabilization. Domestic availability remained adequate and purchasing was largely tied to immediate agricultural and industrial requirements. Wider international conditions were firmer, however, as seaborne market activity increased during July, and constrained Middle Eastern supply continued supporting international replacement costs.

Ammonium sulfate displayed a more pronounced downward movement. Prices weakened during early July, recovered modestly through the middle of the month and then fell again during the final week. The movement indicated that short-term replenishment was insufficient to reverse the broader weakness in China’s domestic market. International conditions were more varied because ammonium sulfate availability also depended on caprolactam production, coke-oven by-product supply, export economics and regional agricultural demand.

Phosphate Fertilizers – Pricing Trends, July 2026

MAP remained comparatively stable during July. China’s domestic market recorded only limited movement, with a modest early change followed by slight easing and a narrow trading range through the remainder of the month. The absence of sustained price momentum suggested that domestic availability was sufficient for current purchasing requirements, while buyers continued avoiding unnecessary inventory accumulation.

The international phosphate market remained more exposed to raw material and trade-flow risks. Ammonia, Sulphur and phosphoric acid availability continued influencing production economics, while earlier restrictions on Chinese phosphate exports limited the number of flexible supply sources available to import-dependent markets. July capacity and partnership developments in Morocco supported the longer-term supply outlook but did not immediately remove short-term raw-material and logistics constraints.

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Potash Fertilizers – Pricing Trends, July 2026

Potash fertilizers remained broadly stable to slightly weak during July. MOP was relatively steady during the opening and middle portions of the month before softening during the third week and stabilizing at the lower level. The movement reflected measured purchasing rather than a significant deterioration in consumption, with adequate availability limiting buying urgency in the covered markets.

Potassium nitrate and SOP also moved within narrow ranges. Potassium nitrate showed a mild mid-month improvement followed by slight late-month easing, while SOP remained stable to marginally weaker. Both products serve more specialized applications than MOP, including fruits, vegetables, horticulture, fertigation and chloride-sensitive crops. Their July movement therefore remained closely linked to confirmed specialty-crop requirements rather than broad commodity-fertilizer procurement.

Fertilizers Price Direction, By Geography And Fertilizers Group, August 2026

Fertilizers Key Market Drivers

• Divergence between China’s domestic market and the seaborne nitrogen market - Nitrogen fertilizer markets moved in different directions during July. China’s domestic urea market remained soft as local availability was adequate, and buyers purchased mainly against immediate requirements. International conditions were firmer as import demand, regional supply uncertainty and higher delivered costs supported the seaborne market. Restricted exports from parts of the Middle East, uncertainty around ammonia availability and higher production costs in Europe increased the replacement cost of seaborne nitrogen fertilizers. The reopening of a limited Chinese export window added some supply but did not fully offset disruption elsewhere. Consequently, domestic Chinese weakness did not translate into comparable softness across international markets. This divergence was particularly important for import-dependent regions, where delivered costs continued reflecting freight, insurance and alternative sourcing expenses.

• Middle Eastern supply, gas costs and logistics remained influential - Middle Eastern supply-chain conditions remained a major fertilizer-market influence during July. The region is an important exporter of urea, ammonia and fertilizer feedstocks, meaning disruptions affected availability beyond the immediate producing countries. Limited ammonia exports supported international replacement costs, while higher European gas prices increased the marginal cost of nitrogen production. UAE-based producers also faced export-shipment constraints, although diversified production locations and logistics networks helped maintain customer supply. Importers responded by widening their sourcing options and maintaining larger supply buffers where financially possible. The effect was strongest in nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, while potash remained less directly exposed to natural-gas economics.

• Kharif demand and supply management in India - India’s Kharif fertilizer program remained an important source of demand during July. Urea, phosphate and potash consumption continued as monsoon-season crop activity progressed, but the government maintained availability above assessed requirements across the principal fertilizer categories. Domestic production, global urea tenders, monthly supply plans and long-term agreements for phosphate and potash imports reduced the risk of immediate shortages. Comfortable stocks limited panic buying even as global freight and feedstock costs remained elevated. Government monitoring of fertilizer movements also helped redirect supplies between states according to seasonal requirements. India therefore supported international trade volumes without creating the type of uncontrolled procurement pressure that would have resulted from a domestic supply deficit.

• Phosphate raw materials and export availability - Phosphate fertilizer supply remained sensitive to ammonia, Sulphur, phosphate rock and phosphoric acid availability. Disruptions to Middle Eastern trade routes had increased the cost and delivery risk of several of these inputs, while restricted Chinese phosphate exports reduced flexibility for importers. MAP prices in China remained comparatively stable, but this domestic movement did not fully represent the higher replacement risks faced by international buyers. Producers with integrated phosphate-rock and processing operations maintained an advantage, particularly where they could diversify Sulphur and ammonia sourcing. July’s expansion of a Moroccan phosphate-fertilizer partnership improved the longer-term supply outlook by increasing the scale of jointly marketed production. However, new commercial arrangements did not immediately eliminate the effect of constrained raw materials and logistics on July transactions.

• Adequate potash availability and selective specialty demand - Potash markets remained more stable than nitrogen markets during July. In India, MOP availability exceeded reported seasonal sales and requirements, reducing the urgency of additional spot purchases. China’s monitored potassium fertilizer market also moved only modestly, supporting the assessment that supply was sufficient for current demand. MOP procurement continued to depend on crop economics, inventories, and the timing of field application. SOP and potassium nitrate were influenced by a narrower set of chloride-sensitive and higher-value crops, producing smaller and more selective purchasing cycles. These conditions prevented the potash category from following the sharper international movement observed in urea. Freight and import costs remained relevant, but adequate stocks and disciplined purchasing limited their immediate effect on domestic prices.

Fertilizers Coverage

Nitrogen Fertilizers

The Nitrogen Fertilizers category covers Urea and Ammonium Sulfate. Urea is a high-nitrogen fertilizer used across cereals, rice, maize, sugarcane and numerous other crops. Ammonium sulfate provides both nitrogen and Sulphur and is used in agriculture as well as selected industrial applications. July movement reflected domestic availability, ammonia and natural-gas conditions, export flows, seasonal crop demand, and government procurement.

Nitrogen Fertilizers Pricing - Key influencers

• Natural-gas and ammonia availability

• Domestic production and plant operating rates

• Export policy and seaborne supply

• Agricultural procurement and inventories 

Phosphate Fertilizers

The Phosphate Fertilizers category covers Ammonium Biphosphate, represented by MAP. MAP supplies nitrogen and phosphorus and is widely used as a direct-application fertilizer and as an input for compound fertilizers. July conditions reflected the availability and cost of phosphate rock, Sulphur, ammonia and phosphoric acid, together with producer output, export availability and seasonal crop requirements.

Phosphate Fertilizers Pricing - Key influencers

• Phosphate-rock and phosphoric-acid availability

• Ammonia and Sulphur costs

• Chinese export availability

• Agricultural and compound-fertilizer demand

Potash Fertilizers

The Potash Fertilizers category covers MOP, Potassium Nitrate and SOP. MOP is the main bulk potash fertilizer, while potassium nitrate and SOP serve horticultural, fertigation and chloride-sensitive applications. July movement was influenced by major producer supply, import availability, crop affordability, inventories and specialty-crop demand.

Potash Fertilizers Pricing - Key influencers

• Major producer and import availability

• Crop economics and application timing

• Freight and regional import costs

• Demand from specialty and chloride-sensitive crops

Regional Commentary

China - China’s domestic fertilizer market remained generally soft during July. Urea weakened during both the opening and middle portions of the month, while MAP and MOP recorded only limited movement. SOP-based compound fertilizer was comparatively firmer in the official monitored series, although the covered standalone SOP reference remained broadly stable to slightly weak. Ammonium sulfate also weakened despite a short-lived mid-month recovery. Adequate domestic availability and disciplined procurement kept China’s local market softer than the international seaborne nitrogen market.

India - India’s fertilizer market remained active during the Kharif season, but availability was comfortable across urea, phosphate, MOP and NPK fertilizers. Supplies were supported by domestic production, import tenders, long-term international agreements and government-directed monthly distribution plans. Stocks remained above immediate sales requirements during July, reducing the risk of localized shortages and limiting panic procurement. Higher freight and land costs remained a concern, particularly for imported ammonia, phosphoric acid, Sulphur and potash.

Europe - European fertilizer conditions remained shaped by elevated production and import costs during July. Gas-intensive nitrogen production remained exposed to energy costs, while disruption in Middle Eastern supply chains increased concern over imported fertilizer and feedstock availability. Farmer affordability remained under pressure ahead of the next sowing cycle. In July, the European Union approved targeted financial relief for farmers affected by higher fertilizer and energy costs arising from the Middle East crisis.

France - France introduced direct financial assistance for purchases of straight nitrogen fertilizers during July. The program covered eligible purchases made between June and September and was designed to restart delayed procurement for the 2026–27 agricultural campaign. Authorities subsequently brought together producers, importers, traders and distributors to review market behavior following the announcement of the aid. The measures supported purchasing capacity but also demonstrated the extent to which elevated fertilizer costs were limiting farmer demand.

Germany - Germany remained exposed to high European nitrogen-fertilizer production costs because of the importance of natural gas in domestic and regional manufacturing. During July, the country received one of the largest national allocations under the European farmer-support package. The assistance was intended to relieve input costs and liquidity pressure ahead of the next sowing cycle. Procurement nevertheless remained cautious, with growers balancing nutrient requirements against crop returns and wider operating expenses.

UK - The UK fertilizer market remained cautious during July as unusually dry and hot conditions affected soils and reduced field-application opportunities in parts of England. Buyers focused on immediate crop requirements and planning for the next application period rather than broad inventory accumulation. The July release of national fertilizer-practice statistics also reinforced the continuing emphasis on measured nutrient use and application efficiency.

U.S. - U.S. fertilizer purchasing remained seasonally quieter during July following the main spring application period. Attention shifted toward in-season crop requirements, regional distribution and planning for post-harvest procurement. Growers continued balancing nutrient requirements against crop conditions and expected farm returns, resulting in selective rather than broad-based restocking.

Saudi Arabia - Saudi Arabia remained an important regional producer and exporter of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers during July. Competitive feedstock access continued supporting its structural cost position. However, wider Middle Eastern shipping and feedstock uncertainty increased the importance of delivery schedules and export availability for international buyers. The country’s role was therefore more relevant to regional supply security than to the direction of its domestic fertilizer market.

UAE - The UAE fertilizer market was strongly influenced by export logistics during July. Local production remained integrated into a diversified regional network, but shipment constraints affected export volumes from UAE facilities. Alternative ports, trading operations and production assets elsewhere in the region helped maintain supply to customers. The July recovery in the seaborne urea market improved producer economics but increased replacement costs for importing regions.

Egypt - Egypt’s nitrogen-fertilizer sector entered July with high operating rates at major urea facilities, supporting regional and export availability. Its access to Mediterranean and Red Sea ports provided flexibility compared with producers more directly dependent on Gulf export routes. Nevertheless, Egyptian supply remained exposed to international ammonia, gas, freight and shipping conditions. Strong production availability helped offset part of the wider regional disruption but did not eliminate global nitrogen tightness.

Morocco - Morocco strengthened its phosphate-fertilizer position during July through an agreement to establish a second joint production venture at Jorf Lasfar. The arrangement increased the combined scale of phosphate fertilizers produced and marketed by the partners and improved access to international customers, including the U.S. market. Morocco’s integrated phosphate reserves, processing facilities and export infrastructure continued providing an important supply alternative while other global phosphate flows remained constrained. The development was strategically important, although its immediate impact on July MAP availability remained limited.

Analyst Commentary

“Fertilizer markets followed different regional and product-specific paths during July 2026. China’s domestic urea and ammonium sulfate markets remained soft, while the seaborne nitrogen market strengthened as constrained Middle Eastern exports, higher European production costs and renewed importer activity tightened internationally available supply. MAP remained comparatively stable, while MOP, potassium nitrate and SOP displayed limited movement amid adequate availability and disciplined procurement. India maintained comfortable Kharif supplies through production, imports and active distribution management, while Europe and France introduced financial support to protect farmer purchasing capacity. Near-term direction will remain sensitive to Middle Eastern trade flows, natural-gas and ammonia costs, Chinese export availability, Indian procurement, phosphate raw-material supply, crop affordability and buyer inventory discipline.”

Senior Fertilizers Analyst

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