Non-Ferrous Metals Monthly Price Assessment – September 2026

Non-Ferrous Metals Pricing Intelligence - Executive Summary

Non-ferrous metals moved under markedly different pressures in September. Copper prices remained sensitive to constraints on supply concentrate and scrap availability. This in turn directly impacted the Chinese smelters capability to switch between the raw materials. It has already been established that the refined copper output from China is likely to record the lowest growth this year. In addition, sulphuric acid, which is the byproduct of copper smelting, is also registering falling prices. Thus, further impacting the profit margins of local smelters.

Other base metals such as zinc reflected tight mined supply and limited readily available exchange stocks. Aluminum buyers continued to assess the pace of Gulf production recovery against thin inventory buffers and regional delivery costs. Nickel, lead, and tin followed their own supply and end-use conditions, with pricing remaining largely stable or declining in case of nickel owing to oversupply.

Battery metals also diverged. Lithium carbonate recovered from a mid-month decline in China, but prospective increases in feedstock arrivals kept buyers cautious. Cobalt remained exposed to the Democratic Republic of Congo’s export-quota system. In minor & specialty metals, access to material and processing capacity mattered alongside underlying industrial demand. Precious metals became more sensitive to oil-driven inflation concerns, higher bond yields and expectations for U.S. interest rates as the month ended.

Key Price Developments & Insights

• Copper remained supported by limited concentrate availability and tighter scrap supply, which raised concerns about the pace of refined output in China.

• Zinc reflected tight mined supply and low available exchange stocks, while pressure on smelter margins kept refined-metal availability in focus.

• Aluminum remained sensitive to the pace of Gulf production recovery, as thin inventories and regional delivery costs continued to affect buyers.

• Lithium carbonate recovered from its mid-September decline, although rising feedstock arrivals and cautious spot purchasing limited confidence in a sustained rebound.

• Gold came under pressure late in September as higher oil prices strengthened inflation and interest-rate concerns, with rising yields and a firmer dollar weighing on precious-metal sentiment.

Top Performing Non-Ferrous Metal Commodity

• Top Mover: Zinc

• Average MoM Growth (top 3 geographies): 4.1%

• Volatility Level: High

Base Metals – Pricing Trends, September 2026

Copper’s September narrative centered on the availability of inputs for refining. Concentrate shortages persisted, while reduced scrap availability narrowed smelters’ ability to switch feedstock. Lower returns from a key smelting by-product added to margin pressure. These conditions supported concern about refined supply later in the year, although the strength of copper prices also encouraged buyers to manage purchases closely. Zinc faced a more immediate availability issue as mine output had underperformed and low exchange stocks left less room to absorb changes in Western demand.

Aluminum remained shaped by the balance between recovering Gulf production and the time needed to rebuild accessible stocks and normal delivery routes. U.S. buyers also faced a substantial regional premium, so a change in the international metal benchmark would not necessarily translate into the same change in delivered costs. Nickel was more exposed to supply conditions and purchasing by stainless-steel and battery-related users. Lead demand remained linked to batteries and replacement cycles, while tin depended heavily on electronics demand and its comparatively small traded market. Each of the six base metals therefore reflected a different combination of supply and end-use demand.

Battery & Energy Metals – Pricing Trends, September 2026

Lithium carbonate began the latter part of September with a rebound in Chinese futures after three weeks of losses. The recovery did not settle the physical-market outlook: buyers remained cautious, and record August spodumene arrivals pointed to more feedstock becoming available to converters. Battery and energy storage demand provided counterweight, but the timing of conversion, downstream orders and inventories remained decisive for spot purchasing. Lithium Metal Battery Grade followed its own product specifications and supply conditions, so the recovery in carbonate futures did not necessarily translate into the same movement for lithium metal.

Cobalt’s supply picture remained tied to the Democratic Republic of Congo’s export controls and the movement of material through the refining chain. A quota allocation is not the same as promptly delivered metal: declarations, shipment timing and subsequent processing affect when buyers can obtain usable supply. Battery chemistry and purchasing decisions also influence the extent to which cobalt demand responds to electric-vehicle production. Accordingly, the sector’s three covered commodities did not share a single September price driver.

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Minor & Specialty Metals – Pricing Trends, September 2026

Antimony 99.65%, Molybdenum, Manganese Ore, Manganese Electro, Chromium Coarse Particle and Silicon Lumps serve different industrial uses, but their smaller and less transparent trading channels can make specific supply offers and buyer tenders influential. Molybdenum remained connected to alloy-steel procurement, while manganese, chromium and silicon demand depended substantially on steelmaking and alloy production. Ore quality, product specification, power costs and freight can cause delivered assessments to differ even when broader industrial conditions appear similar.

September’s Chinese export-licensing and shipment disruptions sustained uncertainty across parts of the rare-earth supply chain. Supply conditions varied by material and customer, particularly where alternative suppliers or processing routes were limited. Procurement risk was greater where qualified alternative suppliers or processing routes were limited.

Precious Metals – Pricing Trends, September 2026

Gold and silver were increasingly influenced by the interaction of geopolitical risk, oil prices, the U.S. dollar and interest-rate expectations. The late-month rise in oil reinforced inflation and rate concerns, lifting bond yields and the cost of holding non-yielding precious metals. Gold fell sharply on 28 September before recovering ground on 29 September; this sequence illustrates how quickly monetary-policy expectations could outweigh safe-haven buying. Silver shared part of that financial-market exposure while retaining an industrial-demand component.

Platinum, palladium and rhodium remained sensitive to automotive demand, recycling flows and concentrated supply. Platinum and palladium moved in different directions during the 29 September session, reflecting their distinct market conditions. Rhodium’s thin spot market made individual offers and the availability of material particularly influential.

Non-Ferrous Metals Price Direction, By Geography And Metal Group, October 2026

Non-Ferrous Metals Pricing - Key Drivers

• Copper feedstock constraints shifted attention to refined supply - The pressure on copper was increasingly visible before metal reached the end user. Smelters faced a persistent shortage of concentrate, while tighter scrap availability reduced their scope to replace one input with another. Weaker returns from sulphuric acid, a smelting by-product, further reduced the incentive to maintain output at any cost. Chinese refiners were considering maintenance for October and November, bringing the timing of future refined deliveries into focus during September. This supported the physical-market case for copper even as elevated outright prices encouraged consumers to avoid building unnecessary stocks. The main question for purchasers was whether feedstock limitations would turn into reduced refined-metal availability, and how quickly that would be felt in their own delivery market.

• Aluminum recovery and zinc scarcity pulled availability in different directions - Aluminum and zinc illustrated why low inventories need to be read alongside current production. Gulf aluminum facilities were recovering from earlier disruption, but rebuilding the supply chain and exchange stocks took time. Buyers therefore still had to consider origin, route and regional premium when comparing offers. Zinc faced a different problem: global mine output fell in the first half of the year, leaving smelters competing to concentrate while accessible exchange stocks remained low. Higher energy costs could add to the pressure on Western refining margins. For aluminum, the pace and reliability of restored shipments were central; for zinc, additional mine supply and smelter economics were the stronger tests of whether tightness would ease.

• Lithium purchases depended on the balance between orders and incoming feedstock - Lithium carbonate’s September rebound followed a substantial earlier decline, leaving downstream buyers reluctant to treat a futures recovery as evidence of a sustained physical shortage. China received record spodumene imports in August, and additional arrivals could raise converter output as material passed through the processing chain. At the same time, battery and energy storage orders offered support during the seasonal demand period. The timing of that supply response mattered more than the import figure alone: ore must be converted, qualified product delivered and existing stocks absorbed. Cobalt followed a separate path, with Congo’s export quotas affecting raw-material availability before it reached refiners. Lithium Metal Battery Grade remained subject to its own specifications, qualification requirements and supply conditions.

• Specialty-metal trade access and steel-alloy buying remained product specific - The specialty group combined materials with very different procurement cycles. Molybdenum demand was tied closely to alloy-steel tenders; manganese ore, electrolytic manganese, chromium particles and silicon lumps depending on the operating rates and purchasing patterns of steel and alloy producers. Antimony and rare-earth carbonate added a stronger strategic-supply dimension, where export procedures, qualified sellers and processing capacity could matter as much as quoted prices. September’s reported difficulties in obtaining selected rare-earth shipments reinforced the value of checking actual deliverability. They did not imply identical conditions for all rare-earth products. Buyers comparing regional offers also had to account for grade, minimum order, freight and delivery time, particularly in markets with relatively few interchangeable suppliers.

• Oil, yields and the dollar reshaped precious-metal sentiment - Precious metals faced competing signals late in September. Middle East uncertainty could encourage defensive buying, yet higher oil prices also raised inflation concerns and expectations of further U.S. monetary tightening. Rising Treasury yields and a firmer dollar made gold and other non-yielding holdings less attractive to some investors. Gold’s sharp fall on 28 September and partial rebound the next day showed how quickly that balance could change. Silver carried both investment and industrial exposure, while platinum, palladium and rhodium had more direct links to automotive use and physical supply. These differences produced distinct demand and supply pressures across the precious-metals group. For the near-term outlook, U.S. economic releases, oil developments and changes in yields remained the clearest signals to monitor.

Non-Ferrous Metals - Commodity Coverage

Base Metals

The base-metals coverage comprises Aluminum, Copper, Lead, Nickel, Tin and Zinc. September’s strongest supply concerns centered on copper feedstock and zinc’s mined-material shortfall, while aluminum still reflected the rebuilding of Gulf production and inventories.Nickel, lead and tin were shaped by their own supply, stock and end-use conditions.

Base Metals Pricing - Key influencers

• Copper concentrate and scrap availability

• Zinc mine output, smelter margins and available stocks

• Gulf aluminum shipments and regional delivery premiums

• Nickel supply and stainless-steel purchasing

• Lead battery and tin electronics demand

Battery & Energy Metals

This group covers Cobalt, Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Metal Battery Grade. Lithium carbonate purchasing reflected the contest between downstream orders and more incoming feedstock, while cobalt availability continued to depend on the operation of export quotas and the refining chain. Product form, battery-grade specifications and qualification requirements influenced availability and delivery costs.

Battery & Energy Metals Pricing - Key influencers

• Spodumene arrivals and conversion into lithium chemicals

• Battery and energy-storage order schedules

• Downstream inventories and purchasing discipline

• Congo cobalt export-quota administration

• Product qualification and delivery timing

Minor & Specialty Metals

The covered materials are Antimony 99.65%, Manganese Ore, Molybdenum, Rare Earth Carbonate REO, Manganese Electro, Chromium Coarse Particle and Silicon Lumps. Their markets differ in grade, liquidity and principal end use. Alloy-production demand shaped several of them, while supply concentration and trade access carried greater weight for selected strategic materials.

Minor & Specialty Metals Pricing - Key influencers

• Steel and alloy producer tenders

• Ore grade and product specification

• Power, processing and freight costs

• Export licensing and shipment availability

• Access to qualified alternative suppliers

Precious Metals

Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium and Rhodium make up the precious-metals coverage. Financial conditions exerted a pronounced influence on gold and silver toward month-end. Automotive demand and concentrated physical supply added separate considerations for platinum-group metals, especially where spot liquidity was limited.

Precious Metals Pricing - Key influencers

• U.S. interest-rate expectations and Treasury yields

• Dollar movement and investment flows

• Geopolitical uncertainty and oil-driven inflation concerns

• Automotive and industrial demand

• Mine supply, recycling and spot-market availability

Regional Commentary

China - China remained central to September’s copper, lithium and specialty-metal outlook. Smelter access to copper concentrate and scrap influenced expectations for refined output. Lithium carbonate buyers weighed battery orders against higher spodumene arrivals and the prospect of more conversion. Rare-earth export licensing and actual shipment availability remained material for overseas customers. Conditions varied by metal, and strength in one supply chain did not carry across the wider Chinese non-ferrous market.

India - Indian buyers faced the combined effect of international metal benchmarks, currency movements and delivered import costs. Oil-related pressure on the rupee toward month-end increased the need to distinguish a dollar-denominated metal move from a change in local purchasing cost. Copper and aluminum demand remained tied to electrical equipment, fabrication and infrastructure orders, while battery-material procurement depended on project schedules and qualified supply. Precious metal buyers also had to weigh high prices against seasonal purchasing requirements.

Europe - European buyers remained exposed to the availability of imported aluminum and refined zinc, alongside energy and financing costs. Low accessible zinc stocks and pressure on Western smelter margins made delivery reliability important even where a global benchmark appeared sufficient for pricing. Copper users also monitored the implications of tighter feed stock for future refined supply. For specialty metals, procurement teams had to distinguish a quoted offer from material that could meet specification and arrive within the required production window.

U.S. - The U.S. aluminum market continued to carry a substantial regional premium, leaving domestic delivered costs sensitive to import policy and the range of available suppliers. Copper buyers monitored future refined supply and trade-policy decisions. Access to selected rare-earth materials remained an operational concern despite the broader diplomatic discussions during September. Higher Treasury yields also affected precious-metal investment sentiment, particularly in the final days of the month.

Saudi Arabia - For Saudi buyers and fabricators, aluminum availability depended on regional production, the reliability of Gulf shipping routes and the cost of delivering material to the required site. Copper requirements remained linked to electrical and industrial procurement, while steel-alloy activity influenced demand for several covered specialty metals. Elevated energy and freight costs could affect conversion and delivery quotations even when the underlying international metal benchmark was steady. Shipment timing and route availability remained important considerations for buyers.

UAE - The UAE remained a significant part of the Gulf aluminum supply picture as production recovered from earlier disruption. The relevant commercial test in September was how consistently restored output could reach buyers and rebuild accessible inventories. For local manufacturers and traders, copper and other imported non-ferrous inputs were also sensitive to freight, origin and payment terms. Differences between an exchange price and a delivered offer remained particularly important where routes had changed or replacement stocks were thin.

Qatar - Qatari purchasers faced international benchmark movements together with Gulf freight and delivery conditions. Aluminum and copper demand was linked to fabrication, electrical equipment and ongoing industrial requirements, but purchasing decisions depended on project timing rather than a single regional price signal. Freight costs and delivery lead times remained relevant to landed quotations. Precious-metal sentiment, where relevant, followed the broader interaction of geopolitical risk and U.S. yields.

Egypt - Egyptian importers and fabricators needed to assess non-ferrous metals on a delivered basis, incorporating international benchmarks, currency exposure, shipping costs and the timing of customer orders. Copper and aluminum remained relevant to electrical and construction-linked manufacturing, while zinc, lead and specialty metals served more specific applications. Copper feedstock, zinc availability and Gulf aluminum deliveries remained important supply considerations for importers.

Morocco - In Morocco, demand for copper and aluminum remained tied to industrial fabrication, electrical uses and project procurement. Imported metal costs required attention to benchmark price, freight, currency and the specification of the finished input. Battery and specialty-metal developments were most relevant where manufacturers required qualified material on a defined schedule. Local transactions continued to depend on product specifications, freight costs and project schedules.

Analyst Commentary

"September’s non-ferrous market was defined by the location and form of available supply. Copper refiners faced constraints in both concentrate and scrap; zinc buyers confronted tight mined supply and low accessible stocks; aluminum users watched the return of Gulf output against still-limited inventory. Battery materials followed a different rhythm as additional lithium feedstock met cautious spot purchasing, while cobalt remained sensitive to export administration. By month-end, higher oil prices and bond yields were moving precious-metal sentiment quickly. Buyers should compare offers at the grade and delivery level: the same global headline can produce very different outcomes for a refinery, a fabricator and an end user."

Senior Metals Analyst

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