Ammunition Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report By Caliber (Small, Medium, Large, Rockets & Missiles), By Small Ammunition Product (Rimfire, Centerfire), By End-use (Civil & Commercial, Defense), By Region, And Segment Forecasts, 2024 - 2030

Ammunition Market Size & Trends

The global ammunition market size was estimated at USD 68.57 billion in 2023 and is projected to decline at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -11.3% from 2024 to 2030. A rise in the number of terrorist activities and hostilities across the globe is likely to increase procurement of defense equipment by prominent militaries across the globe, thereby, directly benefiting the market over the forecast period. Rising trends for sports and shooting that utilize rifles and pistols are expected to increase penetration of small-caliber ammunition over the forecast period. Technological advancements have introduced lightweight bullets made from polymer-based cases, thus supporting the overall industry.

High investments by the U.S. government for enhancements in military and armed forces are expected to support market growth in the country. Procurement of small caliber ammunition by civilians and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is expected to bolster the overall market growth. Enhancement of sales channels such as online sales in the country is likely to supplement overall growth.

A rise in the adoption of advanced materials to produce lightweight ammunition is expected to lead to fuel-efficient transportation, which in turn, reduces overall transportation costs. The above-mentioned trend is anticipated to enable transportation of more rounds within the same weight limits, thereby positively impacting the market.

Commercially these ammunition products are not widely available considering restrictions on weapons in major economies. However, defense organizations in major territories have agreed on the procurement of these products to enhance security capabilities. Enhancements in the military by major economies like China, India, France, and Russia are expected to support market growth in the estimated time.

The ammunition industry globally is characterized by collaborations and acquisitions between major players and the government for the long term. Several governments globally, especially India are aiming to enhance their defense forces by procuring and developing indigenous production facilities from foreign players.

End-use Insights

The defense end-use segment led the market, accounting for about 88.08% of the global market revenue in 2023. In addition, this segment is expected to maintain its dominance over the forecast period. Increasing cross-border conflicts have fueled the growth of the bullet market globally. Rising geopolitical tension and terrorist activities are expected to increase the penetration of products.

Full metal jacket bullets are used in military handguns on a large scale, whereas the Air Force tends to use hollow-point bullets for greater accuracy. Hollow-point bullets are popular for use among law enforcement and military personnel due to their rapid expansion property and excellent stopping power.

The semi-jacketed hollow-point bullets, known for their controlled penetration and high stopping power, can create a larger-than-average wound cavity and ensure effective results in a single shot. This bullet thus is typically used for self-defense, pistol target shooting, and backyard shooting. This rise in procurement of enhanced products is likely to offer growth opportunities.

With advancements in technology, a bullet capable of turning, changing its speed, and sending data is being developed by countries including Russia and the U.S. It allows soldiers to stay in a protective cover and shoot around corners. Technological developments by market players are expected to aid market growth.

Market Dynamics

The new administration in the U.S. is also focusing on strengthening the military, thereby projecting a further rise in defense spending over the next 5 years. The NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) countries have also initiated plans to increase their defense budgets, to counter potential threats from the Middle East & Russia. Countries, including China, India, and Japan, have also significantly increased their defense spending owing to persistent security threats as well as heightened geopolitical pressures. In addition, rising geopolitical tensions in North Korea and the Middle East are also expected to drive the demand for defense equipment over the forecast period.

However, the bulk of illicit weapons in circulation is expected to fuel conflicts and drive civilian casualties. These factors are stimulating the governments in various countries to employ stringent regulatory policies pertaining to production, import/export, and use of arms and ammunition. This, in turn, is expected to restrict the growth of the bullet market globally over the forecast period.

Regional Insights

North America was the second-largest market in 2023 with a revenue share of about 13.03%. The growing threat from terrorism coupled with lenient gun laws is expected to promote the consumption of bullets. Furthermore, a surge in sports & hunting activities is expected to be a crucial factor for expansion.

The North America bullets market is expected to witness significant growth, owing to high demand from the U.S. The defense budget in North America has increased, which is heavily influencing the bullets market in the region. Long-term competitive strategy of the U.S. Department of Defense for the development of technologies and new concepts of warfare is expected to aid the market growth.

Europe held a dominant revenue share of 71.33% in 2023. In Europe, directives are provided by the government for the possession of firearms, the supply of firearms in a single market, and a protocol against manufacturing and trafficking of firearms. Also, the European defense system has faced challenges in dealing with refugees from the Middle East and Syria. Europe has also faced the threat of terrorism. Owing to these factors, the market for ammunition in Europe is expected to strengthen over the forecast period.

Rising geopolitical disputes and the increasing threat of terrorist attacks are the primary reasons for the growth of defense industries in the Asia Pacific. Countries like China and India are spending on the modernization of their armed forces to battle against violence. These countries procure ammunition for armed forces and law enforcement agencies to minimize the rising crime rate. These factors are expected to drive the demand over the forecast period.

Caliber Insights

The small caliber ammunition segment held about 28.12% share of the global revenue in 2023. This trend is attributed to a wide array of small caliber ammunition applications including shotgun pistols, assault rifles, rifles, and revolvers. In addition, it is likely to witness the fastest growth due to increasing demand from security forces to tackle rising instances of armed conflicts.

Increasing procurement of medium caliber ammunition by the U.S. Army and its alliances are expected to fuel the market growth for overall ammunition in the estimated time. They include high-performance 20mm, 25mm, 30mm, and 40mm cartridges for a broad range of applications including land, sea, and air with the capability to penetrate light armor, material, and personnel targets. Increasing application of guns and rifles by prominent militaries globally is anticipated to increase the demand for medium-caliber ammunition.

Large caliber ammunition dominated the market with a revenue share of 51.13% in 2023. Large caliber can be classified into spin-stabilized, fin-stabilized, and rocket-assisted. Rocket assisted is a combination of spin-stabilized and fin-stabilized. A majority of guns use the spin-stabilized large-caliber cartridge as it promotes flight stability using spinning, whereas fin-stabilized projectiles obtain stability through fins located at the end of the projection period.

Small Ammunition Product Insights

The centerfire small ammunition products segment led the market in 2023 with a revenue share of 71.12%. Centerfire ammunition is usually used for rifles, shotguns, and handguns. In centerfire ammunition, primer is placed in the center of casing base. This type of ammunition is reloadable and hence is the most commonly used type of cartridge.

Centerfire ammunition is employed as a universal standard in the military, police, and security forces owing to its potential to allow high pressure and an ability to reuse the casings. These cartridges are preferred for military operations owing to their thicker metal casing that can withstand rough handling without high damage.

The rimfire small ammunition product segment is anticipated to register a CAGR of -3.6% over the forecast period. Rimfire bullets are preferred by beginners as they offer limited recoil when they are being used. Besides, they are cheaper as their thin casting with a flattened primer is easy to manufacture.

Although rimfire ammunition is a comparatively cheaper alternative, it is limited to small calibers. This can be attributed to the fact that the nature of the bullet casing requires it to be thin enough to crush and ignite the primer, which is difficult to accomplish in medium and large calibers. This type of ammunition is commonly used for .22LR.

Key Companies & Market Share Insights

Key players generate the majority of their revenues through military and government channels. Their primary customers include the U.S. Department of Defense and The Intelligence Community. They also deliver products to U.S. government customers including the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

These players are also involved in teaming and sub-contracting relationships with their competitors. Competition for major defense programs often requires teams to collaborate on their broad capabilities to cater to customer requirements. Opportunities associated with these programs include roles as the provider of sub-system or component and programs integrator.

Ammunition Market Report Scope

Global Ammunition Market Report Segmentation

This report forecasts revenue growth at global, regional & country levels and provides an analysis of the latest industry trends in each of the sub-segments from 2018 to 2030. For this study, Grand View Research has segmented the global ammunition market report based on caliber, small ammunition product, end-use, and region:

• Caliber Outlook (Revenue, USD Million, 2018 - 2030)

  • Small Caliber

    • 5.56 mm

    • 7.62 mm

      • 7.62 x 51 mm

      • 7.62 x 39 mm

      • Others

    • 9 mm

      • 9 x 18 mm

      • 9 x 19 mm

      • Others

  • Medium Caliber

    • 23 mm

    • 30 mm

    • Others

  • Large Caliber

    • VSHORAD

    • 122 mm

    • Others

  • Rockets, Missiles & Other

    • Tank Ammunition

    • Artillery Ammunition

• Small Ammunition Product Outlook (Revenue, USD Million, 2018 - 2030)

  • Rimfire

  • Centerfire

• End-use Outlook (Revenue, USD Million, 2018 - 2030)

  • Civil & Commercial

    • Sports

    • Hunting

    • Self Defense

  • Defense

    • Military

    • Law Enforcement

• Regional Outlook (Revenue, USD Million, 2018 - 2030)

  • North America

    • U.S.

    • Canada

    • Mexico

  • Europe

    • Germany

    • U.K.

    • France

    • Spain

    • Russia

    • Turkey

    • Czech Republic

    • Poland

  • Asia Pacific

    • China

    • Japan

    • India

    • South Korea

    • Australia

    • Singapore

  • Central & South America

    • Brazil

    • Argentina

  • Middle East & Africa

    • Saudi Arabia

    • UAE