Base Oil Market Size, Share & Trends Report

Base Oil Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report By Product (Group I, Group II, Group III), By Application (Automotive Oils, Process Oils, Industrial Oils), By Region, And Segment Forecasts, 2023 - 2030

  • Report ID: GVR-1-68038-097-2
  • Number of Pages: 130
  • Format: Electronic (PDF)

Research Methodology

A three-pronged approach was followed for deducing the base oil market estimates and forecasts. The process has three steps: information procurement, analysis, and validation. The whole process is cyclical, and steps repeat until the estimates are validated. The three steps are explained in detail below:

Information procurement: Information procurement is one of the most extensive and important stages in our research process, and quality data is critical for accurate analysis. We followed a multi-channel data collection process for base oil market to gather the most reliable and current information possible.

  • We buy access to paid databases such as Hoover’s and Factiva for company financials, industry information, white papers, industry journals, SME journals, and more.
  • We tap into Grand View’s proprietary database of data points and insights from active and archived monitoring and reporting.
  • We conduct primary research with industry experts through questionnaires and one-on-one phone interviews.
  • We pull from reliable secondary sources such as white papers and government statistics, published by organizations like WHO, NGOs, World Bank, etc., Key Opinion Leaders (KoL) publications, company filings, investor documents, and more.
  • We purchase and review investor analyst reports, broker reports, academic commentary, government quotes, and wealth management publications for insightful third-party perspectives.

Analysis: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilized different methods of base oil market data depending on the type of information we’re trying to uncover in our research.

  • Market Research Efforts: Bottom-up Approach for estimating and forecasting demand size and opportunity, top-down Approach for new product forecasting and penetration, and combined approach of both Bottom-up and Top-down for full coverage analysis.

  • Value-Chain-Based Sizing & Forecasting: Supply-side estimates for understanding potential revenue through competitive benchmarking, forecasting, and penetration modeling.

  • Demand-side estimates for identifying parent and ancillary markets, segment modeling, and heuristic forecasting.

  • Qualitative Functional Deployment (QFD) Modelling for market share assessment.

Market formulation and validation: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilize different methods of data analysis depending on the type of information we’re trying to uncover in our research.

  • Market Formulation: This step involves the finalization of market numbers. This step on an internal level is designed to manage outputs from the Data Analysis step.

  • Data Normalization: The final market estimates and forecasts are then aligned and sent to industry experts, in-panel quality control managers for validation.

  • This step also entails the finalization of the report scope and data representation pattern.

  • Validation: The process entails multiple levels of validation. All these steps run in parallel, and the study is forwarded for publishing only if all three levels render validated results.

Base Oil Market Categorization:

The base oil market was categorized into four segments, namely product (Group I, Group II, Group III, Group IV, Group V), application (Automotive Oils, Process Oils, Hydraulic Oils, Metalworking Fluids, Industrial Oils), and regions (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Central & South America, Middle East & Africa).

Segment Market Methodology:

The base oil market was segmented into product, protocols, application, and regions. The demand at a segment level was deduced using a funnel method. Concepts like the TAM, SAM, SOM, etc., were put into practice to understand the demand. We at GVR deploy three methods to deduce market estimates and determine forecasts. These methods are explained below:

Market research approaches: Bottom-up

  • Demand estimation of each product across countries/regions summed up to from the total market.

  • Variable analysis for demand forecast.

  • Demand estimation via analyzing paid database, and company financials either via annual reports or paid database.

  • Primary interviews for data revalidation and insight collection.

Market research approaches: Top-down

  • Used extensively for new product forecasting or analyzing penetration levels.

  • Tool used invoice product flow and penetration models Use of regression multi-variant analysis for forecasting Involves extensive use of paid and public databases.

  • Primary interviews and vendor-based primary research for variable impact analysis.

Market research approaches: Combined

  • This is the most common method. We apply concepts from both the top-down and bottom-up approaches to arrive at a viable conclusion.

Regional Market Methodology:

The base oil market was analyzed at a regional level. The globe was divided into North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Central & South America, and Middle East & Africa, keeping in focus variables like consumption patterns, export-import regulations, consumer expectations, etc. These regions were further divided into seventeen countries, namely, the U.S.; Canada; Mexico; Germany; U.K.; Italy; France; Spain; China; India; Japan; Thailand; Malaysia; Brazil; Argentina; Saudi Arabia; South Africa

All three above-mentioned market research methodologies were applied to arrive at regional-level conclusions. The regions were then summed up to form the global market.

Base oil market companies & financials:

The base oil market was analyzed via companies operating in the sector. Analyzing these companies and cross-referencing them to the demand equation helped us validate our assumptions and conclusions. Key market players analyzed include:

  • CNOOC Ltd.: The company engages in the production, exploration, development, and sale of natural gas, petroleum products, and crude oil through its subsidiaries. The company operates in three segments which are trading business, corporate, and exploration and production. The company operates in the East China Sea, Bohai, Africa, the Eastern South China Sea, the Western South China Sea, North America, Asia, Europe, Oceania, and South America. Geographically, the company classifies its operations into eight regions: Africa, Africa Asia (excluding PRC), Canada, Europe, North America (excluding Canada), Oceania, PRC, and South America.

  • PetroCanada Lubricants Inc.: The company was acquired by HollyFrontier Corporation in the year 2017. The company is a petroleum refiner that produces and markets gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, asphalt, heavy products, and specialty lubricant products. The company operates through five refineries located at Tulsa in Oklahoma, El Dorado in Kansas, Woods Cross in Utah, Cheyenne in Wyoming, and Artesia in New Mexico, with a total annual average crude oil capacity of approximately 554,000 BPD. The company operates through three segments: Refining, Lubricants, and Specialty Products and Holly Energy Partners (HEP). Geographically, the company classifies its operations into three regions: the US, Canada, Europe, Asia, and Latin America.

  • China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.: The company specializes in the oil and gas and chemical markets. Its principal operations include pipeline transportation, sale of petroleum and natural gas, and exploration and production of petroleum and natural gas. The company classifies its business operation into five segments: Exploration and Production; Marketing and Distribution; Refining; Chemicals; Corporate and others. As of December 2020, the company’s refinery outputs were approximately 236.91 million tons. It produced 63.21 million tons of diesel, 20.38 million tons of kerosene, 11.61 million tons of liquefied petroleum gas, 40.22 million tons of light chemical feedstock, 7.71 million tons of fuel oil, and 57.91 million tons of gasoline.

  • PETRONAS Lubricants International Sdn Bhd (PETRONAS): Petronas is a subsidiary of Petroliam Nasional Bhd, and is a manufacturer and distributor of automotive and industrial lubricants. The company offers lubricants and base oils to the agriculture, automotive, and commercial sectors. Its product portfolio includes motor lubricants, auto lubricants, lubricants for commercial vehicles, industrial lubricants, automotive fluids, and base oil, among others. PETRONAS also provides differentiated products such as passenger car oil, commercial vehicle lubricant, motorcycle oil, agriculture and construction lubricant, industrial lubricant, and automotive functional fluids. The company operates in two business segments Olefins and derivatives for which the company has 10 plants and Fertiliser and Methanol for which the company has 7 plants.

  • PT Pertamina (Persero): The company is engaged in the exploration, refinement, production, and distribution of oil, gas, and geothermal energy. The company operates mainly in Indonesia. Pertamina operates through three business segments: downstream; upstream; and others. Pertamina's business operation in the downstream segment involved in the activities of oil and gas refining, and managing the distribution and marketing of the refined products. Marketing and trading business includes activities in marketing fuel, lube oil, LPG, LNG, aviation, petrochemical, and other non-fuel products for the domestic market.

  • PetroChina Company Limited: The company is an oil and gas producer and distributor in China. Its main activities are the production, development, exploration, and marketing of crude oil and natural gas; refining, storage, transportation, production, and marketing of primary petrochemical products, and marketing of crude oil and oil products, transportation of natural gas, crude oil, and refined oil; and natural gas marketing. The company operates through Natural Gas and Pipeline, Refining and Chemicals, and Exploration and Production. The Marketing segment is engaged in the marketing of refined products and trading business. The company markets a wide range of refined products, including gasoline, diesel, and kerosene.

  • Exxon Mobil Corporation: The company operates as a refiner and seller of petroleum products, and its chemical business involves producing merchandise such as artificial rubbers, business alcohols, and solvents. It has three main divisions including chemical, downstream, and upstream. The company is a key producer of Group I, II, II+, III, and III+ categories of base oils using solvent extraction, hydrocracking, and hydrotreating as primary production techniques. It accounts for approximately 80% of energy-related emissions in the U.S. and targets key sectors in commercial transportation and power generation, among others.

  • The state-owned enterprise Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC): It is based in the UAE and has nearly all of its proven oil reserves of 97.8 billion barrels. It also has proven reserves of 6.1 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. The company controls the production of more than 2.7 million barrels of oil per day. The ADNOC Group includes upstream companies, subsidiary companies, marine crude oil transport companies, and petroleum product marketing companies operating in more than 200 gas stations in the UAE. The company has a production capacity of 500 metric tons per year of its Group III base oil also known as ADbase. It has given exclusive distribution rights of ADbase outside the UAE to Chemlube in Europe, Penthol in the U.S., and recently to Indian Oil Corporation for its distribution in India.

  • Chevron Corporation: It is a key player in the energy sector. It is involved in the production and distribution of crude oil, and natural gas, and also processes, markets, and distributes fuel, along with chemical and mining operations, power generation, and energy services. The company has a production line for transportation fuels, lubricants, petrochemicals, and additives. It produces a total of nearly 60,000 barrels per day of base oil at its four production units in Richmond (U.S.), California (U.S.), Pascagoula (U.S.), and Yeosu (South Korea). For base oil manufacturing, the company uses its characteristic technique of Isodewaxing (1993), which removes almost all unwanted sulfur and nitrogen molecules and converts paraffin molecules into high-quality base oils. The company has a presence in the U.S. Gulf Coast, the U.S. East Coast, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, Asia Pacific, and Europe.

  • Shell plc: The company explores and produces canvas and gas from conventional fields and sources similar to tight gemstone, shale, and coal conformations. The company’s product immolations include lubricants, bitumen, liquefied petroleum gas, and petrochemical products similar to raw accessories for plastics, coatings, and cleansers. It markets its products directly through distributors in Europe, Asia Pacific, Oceania, Africa, North America, and South America.

Value chain-based sizing & forecasting

Supply Side Estimates

  • Company revenue estimation via referring to annual reports, investor presentations, and Hoover’s.

  • Segment revenue determination via variable analysis and penetration modeling.

  • Competitive benchmarking to identify market leaders and their collective revenue shares.

  • Forecasting via analyzing commercialization rates, pipelines, market initiatives, distribution networks, etc.

Demand side estimates

  • Identifying parent markets and ancillary markets

  • Segment penetration analysis to obtain pertinent

  • revenue/volume

  • Heuristic forecasting with the help of subject matter experts

  • Forecasting via variable analysis

Base Oil Market Report Objectives:

  • Understanding market dynamics (in terms of drivers, restraints, & opportunities) in the countries.

  • Understanding trends & variables in the individual countries & their impact on growth and using analytical tools to provide high-level insights into the market dynamics and the associated growth pattern.

  • Understanding market estimates and forecasts (with the base year as 2022, historic information from 2018 to 2021, and forecast from 2023 to 2030). Regional estimates & forecasts for each category are available and are summed up to form the global market estimates.

Base Oil Market Report Assumptions:

  • The report provides market value for the base year 2022 and a yearly forecast till 2030 in terms of revenue/volume or both. The market for each of the segment outlooks has been provided on region & country basis for the above-mentioned forecast period.

  • The key industry dynamics, major technological trends, and application markets are evaluated to understand their impact on the demand for the forecast period. The growth rates were estimated using correlation, regression, and time-series analysis.

  • We have used the bottom-up approach for market sizing, analyzing key regional markets, dynamics, & trends for various products and end-users. The total market has been estimated by integrating the country markets.

  • All market estimates and forecasts have been validated through primary interviews with the key industry participants.

  • Inflation has not been accounted for to estimate and forecast the market.

  • Numbers may not add up due to rounding off.

  • Europe consists of EU-8, Central & Eastern Europe, along with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

  • Asia Pacific includes South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania (Australia & New Zealand).

  • Latin America includes Central American countries and the South American continent

  • Middle East includes Western Asia (as assigned by the UN Statistics Division) and the African continent.

Primary Research

GVR strives to procure the latest and unique information for reports directly from industry experts, which gives it a competitive edge. Quality is of utmost importance to us, therefore every year we focus on increasing our experts’ panel. Primary interviews are one of the critical steps in identifying recent market trends and scenarios. This process enables us to justify and validate our market estimates and forecasts to our clients. With more than 8,000 reports in our database, we have connected with some key opinion leaders across various domains, including healthcare, technology, consumer goods, and the chemical sector. Our process starts with identifying the right platform for a particular type of report, i.e., emails, LinkedIn, seminars, or telephonic conversation, as every report is unique and requires a differentiated approach.

We send out questionnaires to different experts from various regions/ countries, which is dependent on the following factors:

  • Report/Market scope: If the market study is global, we send questionnaires to industry experts across various regions, including North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and MEA.

  • Market Penetration: If the market is driven by technological advancements, population density, disease prevalence, or other factors, we identify experts and send out questionnaires based on region or country dominance.

The time to start receiving responses from industry experts varies based on how niche or well-penetrated the market is. Our reports include a detailed chapter on the KoL opinion section, which helps our clients understand the perspective of experts already in the market space.

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