A three-pronged approach was followed for deducing the transformer oil market estimates and forecasts. The process has three steps: information procurement, analysis, and validation. The whole process is cyclical, and steps repeat until the estimates are validated. The three steps are explained in detail below:
Information procurement: Information procurement is one of the most extensive and important stages in our research process, and quality data is critical for accurate analysis. We followed a multi-channel data collection process for transformer oil market to gather the most reliable and current information possible.
Analysis: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilized different methods of transformer oil market data depending on the type of information we’re trying to uncover in our research.
Market Research Efforts: Bottom-up Approach for estimating and forecasting demand size and opportunity, top-down Approach for new product forecasting and penetration, and combined approach of both Bottom-up and Top-down for full coverage analysis.
Value-Chain-Based Sizing & Forecasting: Supply-side estimates for understanding potential revenue through competitive benchmarking, forecasting, and penetration modeling.
Demand-side estimates for identifying parent and ancillary markets, segment modeling, and heuristic forecasting.
Qualitative Functional Deployment (QFD) Modelling for market share assessment.
Market formulation and validation: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilize different methods of data analysis depending on the type of information we’re trying to uncover in our research.
Market Formulation: This step involves the finalization of market numbers. This step on an internal level is designed to manage outputs from the Data Analysis step.
Data Normalization: The final market estimates and forecasts are then aligned and sent to industry experts, in-panel quality control managers for validation.
This step also entails the finalization of the report scope and data representation pattern.
Validation: The process entails multiple levels of validation. All these steps run in parallel, and the study is forwarded for publishing only if all three levels render validated results.
The transformer oil market was categorized into four segments, namely product (Mineral-based Oils, Silicone-based Oils, Bio-based Oils), rating (<100 MVA, 100 MVA to 500 MVA, 501 MVA to 800 MVA, >800 MVA), end-use (Utilities, Industrial, Residential, Commercial), and regions (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Central & America, Middle East & Africa).
The transformer oil market was segmented into product, rating, end-use, and regions. The demand at a segment level was deduced using a funnel method. Concepts like the TAM, SAM, SOM, etc., were put into practice to understand the demand. We at GVR deploy three methods to deduce market estimates and determine forecasts. These methods are explained below:
Demand estimation of each product across countries/regions summed up to from the total market.
Variable analysis for demand forecast.
Demand estimation via analyzing paid database, and company financials either via annual reports or paid database.
Primary interviews for data revalidation and insight collection.
Used extensively for new product forecasting or analyzing penetration levels.
Tool used invoice product flow and penetration models Use of regression multi-variant analysis for forecasting Involves extensive use of paid and public databases.
Primary interviews and vendor-based primary research for variable impact analysis.
The transformer oil market was analyzed at a regional level. The globe was divided into North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Central & America, and Middle East & Africa, keeping in focus variables like consumption patterns, export-import regulations, consumer expectations, etc. These regions were further divided into nineteen countries, namely, the U.S.; Canada; Mexico; Germany; UK; France; Italy; Russia; China; India; Japan; South Korea; Australia; Indonesia; Brazil; Argentina; Saudi Arabia; South Africa; Turkey
All three above-mentioned market research methodologies were applied to arrive at regional-level conclusions. The regions were then summed up to form the global market.
The transformer oil market was analyzed via companies operating in the sector. Analyzing these companies and cross-referencing them to the demand equation helped us validate our assumptions and conclusions. Key market players analyzed include:
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation The company was established in 1998 and headquartered in Beijing, China. It employs over 374,791 people across the globe. China Petrochemical Corporation (SINOPEC) combines its petrochemical business with its refineries and distributes a majority of its petrochemical products within China. The company operates through various business segments, including oil & gas exploration and production, refining operations, chemical operations, oilfield services, refining & chemical engineering services, construction projects, etc. The company provides transformer oils under its industrial lubricants range.
Cargill Inc. The company was established in 1856 and headquartered in Minnesota, U.S. Cargill Inc. has more than 155,000 employee base. It is a multinational company involved in various industries, including agriculture commodities, such as grain, steel, and transportation. The company also trades energy and produces various food ingredients, such as glucose syrup, starch, vegetable oils and fats, for use in processed foods and industrial applications. Additionally, the company is engaged in livestock rearing and feed production. The company has gained recognition for its dielectric coolants derived from sustainable vegetable oils that offer enhanced fire safety, transformer life/loadability, and environmental benefits. Its line of transformer oils fall under the bioindustrial segment. The company is in over 70 countries across Asia Pacific, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, Latin America, and North America.
Nynas AB Sweden based Nynas AB manufactures base oils, tire oils, and process oils for use in industrial applications. The products offered by the company are manufactured at its refineries in Europe. Nynas own two of these refineries in Gothenburg and Nynäshamn, while the refinery in the UK is a joint venture with Shell. The company also possesses a high-value supply chain that distributes its naphthenic specialty oils and bitumen across the globe via numerous hubs, specialized blending stations, and agents. The transformer oils offered by the company are used in various applications such as in industries, hospitals, farms, homes, and railway stations.
Ergon, Inc. Ergon operates via six primary business segments, namely asphalt & emulsions, refining & marketing, oil & gas, specialty chemicals, midstream & logistics, and construction & real estate. The company offers its transformer oil under the refining & marketing segment. These companies are engaged in a wide range of operations such as marketing paraffinic & naphthenic specialty oils, crude oil processing, and marketing & producing specialty asphalt products. The company caters primarily to the petroleum industry, including propane & trucking distribution, marine transportation & petrom marketing. The company operates in the U.S., Canada, Latin America & Mexico, Europe, the Middle East & Africa, and Indonesia, among other locations.
Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. manufactures specialty hydrocarbon and fuel products. The company's product portfolio includes naphthenic and paraffinic oils, aliphatic solvents, white mineral oils, synthetic lubricants, asphalt, fuel petrolatum, and hydrocarbon gels. Additionally, the company provides base oils, food-grade lubricants, personal care, and specialty waxes. It provides transformer oils under its base oil segment. The company has more than 10 production facilities across the North American region, with global distribution in over 90 countries.
Apar Industries Ltd. Apar Industries Ltd. manufactures and distributes power transmission conductors, specialty oils, telecom solutions, cables, lubricants, polymers, and specialty automotive oils. The Apar Group has evolved into a major conglomerate in India. The company has an annual production capacity of about 400,000 kiloliters in its specialty oils business in India and 120,000 kiloliters per annum in the UAE. The company has three manufacturing facilities located in Silvassa and Rabale in India and Hamriyah in the UAE. The company provides a wide range of transformer oils under the specialty oils segment.
Engen Petroleum Ltd. Engen Petroleum Ltd.is an energy group focused primarily on the marketing of lubricants and functional fluids, petroleum, and chemical and retail service stations across seven countries. The company operates under three segments, namely motorists, business solutions, and lubricants.
Hydrodec Group Plc. Hydrodec is a company specializing in clean-tech oil re-refining and has operations in the U.S. and Australia. The proprietary technology used by Hydrodec enables it to re-refine used and contaminated waste oil, resulting in the production, marketing, and distribution of transformer oils and naphthenic base oil. Contaminated waste oil is currently processed at the company’s plants at Ohio, and Canton inthe U.S., respectively. The company’s manufacturing process allows for very high level of recovery and produces transformer oils at a competitive cost without environmental degradation.
San Joaquin Refining Co. Inc. San Joaquin Refining specializes in the manufacturing, refining, and supply of naphthenic crude oils with an operational presence in Bakersfield and California. The company caters to industries such as lubricants, printing inks, adhesives, paints & coatings, rubber & plastics, road paving, roofing, and asphalt recycling. The company serves industries with applications in drilling fluids, transformer oils, lubricants, explosives, hydraulic fluids, paints, greases, coatings, resins, and others.
Shell Plc. The company was established in 1907 and headquartered in London, England. It has over 93,000 employees across the globe. Shell Plc is involved in the exploration of crude oil and natural gas worldwide. It also manufactures and supplies petrochemical products and biofuels for use in commercial and industrial applications. The company's product portfolio primarily caters to clients operating in the marine, aviation, transportation, power, mining, and manufacturing industries. It also produces chemicals for applications in textiles, packaging products, carpets, tires, and compact discs.
Supply Side Estimates
Company revenue estimation via referring to annual reports, investor presentations, and Hoover’s.
Segment revenue determination via variable analysis and penetration modeling.
Competitive benchmarking to identify market leaders and their collective revenue shares.
Forecasting via analyzing commercialization rates, pipelines, market initiatives, distribution networks, etc.
Demand side estimates
Identifying parent markets and ancillary markets
Segment penetration analysis to obtain pertinent
Heuristic forecasting with the help of subject matter experts
Forecasting via variable analysis
Understanding market dynamics (in terms of drivers, restraints, & opportunities) in the countries.
Understanding trends & variables in the individual countries & their impact on growth and using analytical tools to provide high-level insights into the market dynamics and the associated growth pattern.
Understanding market estimates and forecasts (with the base year as 2023, historic information from 2018 - 2022, and forecast from 2024 to 2030). Regional estimates & forecasts for each category are available and are summed up to form the global market estimates.
The report provides market value for the base year 2023 and a yearly forecast till 2030 in terms of revenue/volume or both. The market for each of the segment outlooks has been provided on region & country basis for the above-mentioned forecast period.
The key industry dynamics, major technological trends, and application markets are evaluated to understand their impact on the demand for the forecast period. The growth rates were estimated using correlation, regression, and time-series analysis.
We have used the bottom-up approach for market sizing, analyzing key regional markets, dynamics, & trends for various products and end-users. The total market has been estimated by integrating the country markets.
All market estimates and forecasts have been validated through primary interviews with the key industry participants.
Inflation has not been accounted for to estimate and forecast the market.
Numbers may not add up due to rounding off.
Europe consists of EU-8, Central & Eastern Europe, along with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Asia Pacific includes South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania (Australia & New Zealand).
Latin America includes Central American countries and the South American continent
Middle East includes Western Asia (as assigned by the UN Statistics Division) and the African continent.
GVR strives to procure the latest and unique information for reports directly from industry experts, which gives it a competitive edge. Quality is of utmost importance to us, therefore every year we focus on increasing our experts’ panel. Primary interviews are one of the critical steps in identifying recent market trends and scenarios. This process enables us to justify and validate our market estimates and forecasts to our clients. With more than 8,000 reports in our database, we have connected with some key opinion leaders across various domains, including healthcare, technology, consumer goods, and the chemical sector. Our process starts with identifying the right platform for a particular type of report, i.e., emails, LinkedIn, seminars, or telephonic conversation, as every report is unique and requires a differentiated approach.
We send out questionnaires to different experts from various regions/ countries, which is dependent on the following factors:
Report/Market scope: If the market study is global, we send questionnaires to industry experts across various regions, including North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and MEA.
Market Penetration: If the market is driven by technological advancements, population density, disease prevalence, or other factors, we identify experts and send out questionnaires based on region or country dominance.
The time to start receiving responses from industry experts varies based on how niche or well-penetrated the market is. Our reports include a detailed chapter on the KoL opinion section, which helps our clients understand the perspective of experts already in the market space.
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