Ferrous Metals Monthly Price Assessment – July 2026

Ferrous Metals Pricing Intelligence - Executive Summary

Ferrous metals pricing intelligence covers iron (covering different iron ore grades and pig iron), steel (semi-finished and finished products), and steel scrap. Overall, ferrous metals recorded mixed movement during July 2026. Iron ore showed periods of recovery during the first half of the month as Chinese imports and steel production remained resilient. However, high inventories, improving seaborne supply, and uneven construction-sector demand prevented a stronger and sustained increase. China’s iron ore imports had reached a six-month high in June, while crude steel production remained comparatively firm despite continued weakness in property-related consumption.

Steel prices remained divided across products and regions. Chinese finished steel inventories increased in early July as severe weather and subdued downstream demand affected construction activity. India continued to provide stronger demand support through infrastructure, manufacturing, and rising domestic steel production, while the U.S. market benefited from firm pricing, trade protection, and strong mill shipments. European demand remained more cautious, while anti-dumping investigations and import restrictions continued redirecting international steel flows.

Steel scrap markets remained soft to stable during July. Turkish mills continued limiting deep-sea purchases because finished steel demand and export margins remained weak. European scrap prices also came under pressure as steel mills reduced procurement during the summer holiday period. However, demand for cleaner and higher-quality scrap remained structurally supported by electric arc furnace expansion, recycling requirements, and steel-sector decarbonization.

Key Price Developments & Insights

• Iron ore prices stabilized and showed periods of recovery during July as Chinese import demand remained resilient, although high inventories and adequate global supply limited stronger gains.

• India remained one of the stronger ferrous markets, with crude steel and finished steel production continuing to grow during the first quarter of FY 2026–27.

• U.S. steel prices remained comparatively supported by trade measures, firm mill demand, and planned production outages, while European markets remained more affected by cautious industrial purchasing.

• Steel scrap markets stayed under pressure as Turkish import demand and European summer procurement weakened, although high-quality scrap retained support from electric arc furnace and low-carbon steelmaking requirements. 

Top Performing Ferrous Metal Commodity

• Top Mover: Semi-Finished Steel Billet

• Average MoM Growth (top 3 geographies): 2.8%

• Volatility Level: Moderate

Iron – Pricing Trends

The iron group covers iron ore 58% Fe, 61% Fe, 62% Fe, 65% Fe, and pig iron. Iron ore showed a more balanced pattern during July 2026 after weakening through much of June. Chinese iron ore imports remained strong as mills restocked and domestic ore availability stayed comparatively limited. Steel output also remained firm enough to support ongoing raw material consumption, helping benchmark iron ore grades recover during parts of the month.

However, the recovery remained controlled rather than broad-based. Chinese port availability stayed high, shipments from major producers remained adequate, and weak property-sector activity continued limiting long steel demand. Higher-grade iron ore retained better support because it offers productivity and fuel-efficiency advantages, while lower-grade material faced greater resistance from mills focused on margins and emissions. Pig iron remained influenced by steel-production activity, scrap prices, and cautious purchasing by foundries and mills.

Steel – Pricing Trends

Steel prices recorded mixed regional movement during July 2026. In China, inventories of the five main finished steel products increased by 3.6% in early July as adverse weather and weak downstream demand disrupted construction activity. Rebar inventories recorded the largest increase, indicating greater pressure on construction-linked long products. Flat steel products received relatively better support from machinery, manufacturing, electrical equipment, and export-related demand.

India remained comparatively stronger as crude steel production increased by 3.9% year-on-year in June and finished steel production rose by 6.0%. Domestic pricing also improved for major producers, while infrastructure and manufacturing continued supporting consumption. The U.S. market remained firm due to supportive trade policies, higher mill shipments, and planned outages that helped control supply. Europe remained more cautious, with local producers balancing weak demand against import restrictions and decarbonization-related production costs.

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Steel Scrap Segment – Pricing Trends

Steel scrap markets remained under pressure during July 2026. Turkish mills continued resisting higher deep-sea offers because finished steel sales and export margins remained weak. Reduced purchasing from Türkiye placed pressure on benchmark HMS 1&2 scrap and affected supplier markets in Europe and North America. Indian import activity also remained selective as domestic scrap availability and unfavorable import economics reduced interest in overseas cargoes.

European scrap markets weakened further during the summer holiday period. German mills reduced procurement, while weak export activity to Türkiye and low river levels created additional logistical pressure. Despite this short-term weakness, higher-quality shredded, heavy, and low-residual scrap remained comparatively better supported because electric arc furnace producers require cleaner material to improve yields, reduce energy use, and meet emissions targets.

Ferrous Metals Price Direction, By Geography And Metal Group, August 2026

Ferrous Metals - Key Market Drivers

• Resilient Chinese iron ore imports and steel production - Chinese iron ore demand remained more resilient than broader steel-market conditions suggested during July 2026. Imports reached a six-month high in June as mills restocked material and domestic ore supply remained limited. China’s daily crude steel production also stayed comparatively firm during June, supporting ongoing consumption of iron ore despite weak property-sector activity. This helped iron ore stabilize after the losses recorded during the previous month. However, the market was not uniformly strong because high port availability and increasing supply from Australia, Brazil, and Guinea limited concerns over immediate shortages. Mills also remained focused on costs and avoided aggressive inventory accumulation. Higher-grade iron ore continued attracting interest from producers seeking improved furnace productivity and lower fuel consumption. Market participants therefore balanced resilient near-term import demand against the possibility that adequate global supply and weak construction demand could restrict further price increases.

• Uneven Chinese steel demand and rising inventories - China’s steel market remained divided during July as strong production contrasted with weak demand from property and construction. Inventories of the five main finished steel products increased during early July, with rebar stocks rising more sharply than flat steel inventories. Severe rainfall, flooding, and other adverse weather conditions delayed construction activity and reduced immediate purchasing by downstream users. Property investment and new construction activity also remained weak, restricting demand for rebar, wire rod, structural sections, and billets. Manufacturing and export-related demand provided some support to HRC, CRC, and other flat products, but could not create a broad improvement across the entire market. Mills therefore continued producing at relatively firm rates while managing higher inventories and uneven margins. This created pressure on finished steel prices and limited mills’ willingness to pay significantly higher prices for iron ore, coke, and scrap.

• Stronger steel activity in India and the U.S. - India and the U.S. provided comparatively stronger support to the global steel market during July. India’s crude steel production reached 14.1 million tonnes in June, increasing by 3.9% year-on-year, while finished steel production increased by 6.0%. Infrastructure spending, construction, transport, energy projects, and manufacturing continued supporting long and flat steel demand. Stronger domestic prices also improved the operating performance of major Indian producers. In the U.S., steel mills benefited from supportive pricing, trade protection, strong shipments, and planned outages that helped limit excess supply. These markets helped offset weaker conditions in China’s property sector and cautious European demand. However, buyers in both countries remained attentive to raw material costs, imports, tariffs, and wider economic uncertainty. India and the U.S. therefore remained important regional sources of steel demand growth during the month.

• Trade protection and changing steel flows - Steel trade flows continued to be shaped by anti-dumping investigations, safeguard measures, and import tariffs during July 2026. Japan made a preliminary determination that hot-dip galvanized steel imports from China and South Korea were being dumped and harming domestic producers. India continued investigating HRC imports from China, Japan, and Russia, while the UK implemented tighter tariff-free quotas and higher duties on above-quota steel imports from July. The U.S. also maintained separate national-security tariffs covering steel, even as it introduced wider duties on imports from several trading partners. These measures supported domestic producers by limiting low-priced imports, but they also increased uncertainty for downstream buyers. Exporters increasingly had to identify alternative destinations or adjust product mixes to avoid restrictions. As a result, regional steel prices became more dependent on government policy, trade cases, and import availability rather than underlying demand alone.

• Weak seaborne scrap demand and summer slowdown - Seaborne steel scrap demand remained weak during July as Turkish mills limited purchases and resisted supplier offers. Türkiye is the largest importer in the deep-sea scrap market, so reduced buying directly affected benchmark HMS prices and supplier sentiment across Europe and North America. Finished steel export demand remained insufficient to support aggressive scrap procurement, while mills focused on maintaining margins and purchasing only immediate requirements. European domestic demand also weakened as the summer holiday period reduced mill activity, especially in Germany. Low river levels added logistical complications by limiting cargo loads and increasing inland transportation costs. Indian buyers remained selective because domestic scrap competed with imported cargoes and higher freight costs reduced import attractiveness. Nevertheless, higher-quality scrap remained structurally supported by electric arc furnace growth and decarbonization requirements.

Ferrous Metals  - Commodity Coverage

Iron

The iron category covers iron ore 58% Fe, 61% Fe, 62% Fe, 65% Fe, and pig iron. During July 2026, iron ore stabilized after the previous month’s weakness as Chinese imports and steel production remained resilient. However, high port availability, adequate seaborne supply, and weak property-related steel demand limited the extent of the recovery.

Iron Pricing - Key influencers

• Resilient Chinese iron ore imports

• Firm steel production rates

• High port inventories and adequate supply

• Continued preference for higher-grade ores 

Steel

The steel group covers semi-finished and finished steel products. During July 2026, market conditions remained divided. India and the U.S. continued to receive support from domestic demand and trade protection, while China faced rising inventories and weak construction demand. Europe remained affected by cautious industrial purchasing and changing import rules.

Steel Pricing - Key influencers

• Stronger production and consumption in India

• Firm U.S. steel prices and mill shipments

• Rising Chinese finished steel inventories

• Trade barriers and anti-dumping measures

Steel Scrap

Steel scrap remained soft to stable during July 2026 as Turkish and European mill procurement weakened. Summer holidays, weak finished steel margins, and sufficient availability placed pressure on standard scrap grades. Higher-quality scrap remained relatively better supported by efficiency and decarbonization requirements.

Steel Scrap Pricing - Key influencers

• Weak Turkish deep-sea purchasing

• European summer slowdown

• Cautious mill procurement

• Structural demand for higher-quality scrap

Regional Commentary

China - China remained the largest influence on global iron ore and steel markets during July. Iron ore imports and steel production remained resilient but finished steel inventories increased as construction and property-sector demand stayed weak. Flat steel products remained comparatively better supported than construction-linked long products.

India - India remained one of the strongest ferrous demand markets. Crude steel and finished steel production continued growing, supported by infrastructure, construction, manufacturing, and energy investment. Domestic steel prices remained comparatively firm, although mills continued monitoring imported raw material costs and competition from overseas steel.

Europe - European ferrous markets remained mixed during July. Crude steel production improved year-on-year in June, but industrial purchasing and scrap demand remained cautious. Summer holidays reduced mill procurement, while trade protection and decarbonization costs continued influencing regional steel pricing.

U.S. - The U.S. steel market remained comparatively supported by stronger mill shipments, firm pricing, trade protection, and planned production outages. Infrastructure, manufacturing, energy, and construction activity supported demand, although buyers remained attentive to tariffs and input costs.

Saudi Arabia - Saudi Arabia’s ferrous demand remained linked to infrastructure, construction, and industrial-development projects. However, regional steel production remained affected by uneven operating conditions and energy-market uncertainty. Buyers maintained measured procurement and monitored international prices and delivery costs.

UAE - The UAE continued to receive baseline ferrous demand from construction, manufacturing, logistics, and regional trade. Buyers remained selective as imported steel prices, freight costs, and availability varied. Regional trade flows also remained sensitive to geopolitical and shipping conditions.

Egypt - Egypt’s ferrous market remained supported by construction and infrastructure requirements. African steel production increased year-on-year in June, although currency pressure and import costs continued affecting procurement decisions across the region.

Morocco - Morocco’s steel demand remained linked to infrastructure, industrial manufacturing, automotive activity, and construction. Buyers continued monitoring European steel prices, international scrap availability, and freight costs when planning purchases.

Analyst Commentary

“Ferrous metals recorded mixed movement during July 2026. Iron ore stabilized as Chinese imports and steel production remained resilient, but high availability and weak property-related demand limited stronger gains. Steel markets remained regionally divided, with India and the U.S. providing better demand support while Chinese finished steel inventories increased and European purchasing stayed cautious. Trade protection and anti-dumping measures continued redirecting international steel flows. Steel scrap remained under pressure as Turkish and European procurement weakened, although higher-quality scrap retained support from electric arc furnace and decarbonization requirements. Market participants are expected to continue monitoring Chinese steel inventories, iron ore imports, Indian and U.S. steel demand, trade restrictions, Turkish scrap purchasing, and global raw material availability.”

Senior Metals Analyst

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