A three-pronged approach was followed for deducing the automotive aftermarket market estimates and forecasts. The process has three steps: information procurement, analysis, and validation. The whole process is cyclical, and steps repeat until the estimates are validated. The three steps are explained in detail below:
Information procurement: Information procurement is one of the most extensive and important stages in our research process, and quality data is critical for accurate analysis. We followed a multi-channel data collection process for automotive aftermarket market to gather the most reliable and current information possible.
Analysis: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilized different methods of automotive aftermarket market data depending on the type of information we’re trying to uncover in our research.
Market Research Efforts: Bottom-up Approach for estimating and forecasting demand size and opportunity, top-down Approach for new product forecasting and penetration, and combined approach of both Bottom-up and Top-down for full coverage analysis.
Value-Chain-Based Sizing & Forecasting: Supply-side estimates for understanding potential revenue through competitive benchmarking, forecasting, and penetration modeling.
Demand-side estimates for identifying parent and ancillary markets, segment modeling, and heuristic forecasting.
Qualitative Functional Deployment (QFD) Modelling for market share assessment.
Market formulation and validation: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilize different methods of data analysis depending on the type of information we’re trying to uncover in our research.
Market Formulation: This step involves the finalization of market numbers. This step on an internal level is designed to manage outputs from the Data Analysis step.
Data Normalization: The final market estimates and forecasts are then aligned and sent to industry experts, in-panel quality control managers for validation.
This step also entails the finalization of the report scope and data representation pattern.
Validation: The process entails multiple levels of validation. All these steps run in parallel, and the study is forwarded for publishing only if all three levels render validated results.
The automotive aftermarket market was categorized into five segments, namely replacement parts ( Tire, Battery, Brake Parts, Filters, Body parts, Lighting & Electronic Components, Wheels, Exhaust components, Turbochargers), distribution channel (Retailers, Wholesalers & Distributors), service channel (DIY, DIFM, OE), certification (Genuine Parts, Certified Parts, Uncertified Parts), and region (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Central & South America, Middle East & Africa).
The automotive aftermarket market was segmented into replacement parts, distribution channel, certification, service channel, and regions. The demand at a segment level was deduced using a funnel method. Concepts like the TAM, SAM, SOM, etc., were put into practice to understand the demand. We at GVR deploy three methods to deduce market estimates and determine forecasts. These methods are explained below:
Demand estimation of each product across countries/regions summed up to from the total market.
Variable analysis for demand forecast.
Demand estimation via analyzing paid database, and company financials either via annual reports or paid database.
Primary interviews for data revalidation and insight collection.
Used extensively for new product forecasting or analyzing penetration levels.
Tool used invoice product flow and penetration models Use of regression multi-variant analysis for forecasting Involves extensive use of paid and public databases.
Primary interviews and vendor-based primary research for variable impact analysis.
The automotive aftermarket market was analyzed at a regional level. The globe was divided into North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Central & South America, and Middle East & Africa, keeping in focus variables like consumption patterns, export-import regulations, consumer expectations, etc. These regions were further divided into ten countries, namely, the U.S.; Canada; Mexico; the UK.; Germany; France; China; India; Japan; Brazil.
All three above-mentioned market research methodologies were applied to arrive at regional-level conclusions. The regions were then summed up to form the global market.
The automotive aftermarket market was analyzed via companies operating in the sector. Analyzing these companies and cross-referencing them to the demand equation helped us validate our assumptions and conclusions. Key market players analyzed include:
3M Company - 3M is a conglomerate based in the U.S. The company is operating in related services and industrial engineering. The company offers a wide range of products to customers through five business groups: consumer, industrial, healthcare, safety & graphics, and electronics & energy markets.The firm’s product offering includes abrasives, adhesives, headlight lens restoration, coatings, body filler, buffing pads, cleaners & removers, masking, seam sealers, paint booth protection, welding, and compounds, and polishes & glazes. 3M is a publicly operated firm listed on the New York stock exchange as NYSE: MMM.
ACDelco - ACDelco established in 1899 and headquartered in Michigan, U.S. is a provider of automotive spare parts.. The company’s product portfolio includes GM OE parts, Chevrolet OE parts, Buick OE parts, GMC OE parts, Cadillac OE parts, and Batteries. The company categorized its parts as Gold (professional), and Silver (advance).
Advance Auto Parts Incorporated – Headquartered in North Carolina, U.S. The company serves both DIY customers and professional installers. Its stores and branches offer a wide range of OEM, private label automotive replacement parts, batteries, accessories and maintenance items for international and domestic cars.
Automotive Components Holdings LLC - Automotive Components Holding LLC is a completely owned subsidiary of Ford Motor Company, established in 2005. The company productions interior parts, fuel tanks, fascias, exterior lighting lamps, and steering components. The company is a temporary business managed by the Ford Motor Company in the year 2005.
Bridgestone Corporation - Bridgestone Corporation founded in 1931, which is mainly involved in tire business globally. The company offers different tire range such as motorcycle tires, aircraft tires, passenger tires, commercial tires, and off the road tires globally. The company also offers various business solutions for the automotive, agriculture, aircraft industrial and constriction, building, and mining industries.
Chrysler Group LLC/ Fiat Chrysler Automobiles - Chrysler Group LLC/ Fiat Chrysler Automobiles group operates with the 103 production facilities and 46 Research & Development centers. The company has a sales and distribution network in 135 countries. The group was originated in 2014, U.K. s one of the brands of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA). Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) is involved in designing, manufacturing, engineering, and selling of vehicles and related parts.
Continental AG - Continental AG manufactures and supplies automotive tires and brake systems globally as well as provides individual, safe, sustainable, comfortable, and affordable solutions to its industrial partners. The company isan automotive manufacturing and technology development organization that develops smart technologies for the transportation of people and goods.
Cooper Tire & Rubber Company – Cooper Tire & Rubber Company originated in 1914, is an automotive wheels manufacturer. The company caters to the wheel requirements of passenger cars, light trucks, medium trucks, motorcycles, race cars, commercial, and off-road vehicles.
Denso Corporation - Denso Corporation, based in Japan, is a global supplier of advanced automotive technologies, components, and systems. Initially, the company was a part of Toyota Motors and became independent in 1949.The company comprises various business segments, including powertrain control systems, thermal systems, information and safety system, electronic systems, small motors, industrial systems, and consumer products.
East Penn Manufacturing Company Incorporated - East Penn Manufacturing Company was established in 1946 and is headquartered in Pennsylvania, U.S.The business operations of the company are not only limited to the manufacturing and supply of batteries but also include recycling & processing of over 30,000 batteries daily.
Supply Side Estimates
Company revenue estimation via referring to annual reports, investor presentations, and Hoover’s.
Segment revenue determination via variable analysis and penetration modeling.
Competitive benchmarking to identify market leaders and their collective revenue shares.
Forecasting via analyzing commercialization rates, pipelines, market initiatives, distribution networks, etc.
Demand side estimates
Identifying parent markets and ancillary markets
Segment penetration analysis to obtain pertinent
Heuristic forecasting with the help of subject matter experts
Forecasting via variable analysis
Understanding market dynamics (in terms of drivers, restraints, & opportunities) in the countries.
Understanding trends & variables in the individual countries & their impact on growth and using analytical tools to provide high-level insights into the market dynamics and the associated growth pattern.
Understanding market estimates and forecasts (with the base year as 2023, historic information from 2017 to 2023, and forecast from 2024 to 2030). Regional estimates & forecasts for each category are available and are summed up to form the global market estimates.
The report provides market value for the base year 2023 and a yearly forecast till 2030 in terms of revenue/volume or both. The market for each of the segment outlooks has been provided on region & country basis for the above-mentioned forecast period.
The key industry dynamics, major technological trends, and application markets are evaluated to understand their impact on the demand for the forecast period. The growth rates were estimated using correlation, regression, and time-series analysis.
We have used the bottom-up approach for market sizing, analyzing key regional markets, dynamics, & trends for various products and end-users. The total market has been estimated by integrating the country markets.
All market estimates and forecasts have been validated through primary interviews with the key industry participants.
Inflation has not been accounted for to estimate and forecast the market.
Numbers may not add up due to rounding off.
Europe consists of EU-8, Central & Eastern Europe, along with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Asia Pacific includes South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania (Australia & New Zealand).
Latin America includes Central American countries and the South American continent
Middle East includes Western Asia (as assigned by the UN Statistics Division) and the African continent.
GVR strives to procure the latest and unique information for reports directly from industry experts, which gives it a competitive edge. Quality is of utmost importance to us, therefore every year we focus on increasing our experts’ panel. Primary interviews are one of the critical steps in identifying recent market trends and scenarios. This process enables us to justify and validate our market estimates and forecasts to our clients. With more than 8,000 reports in our database, we have connected with some key opinion leaders across various domains, including healthcare, technology, consumer goods, and the chemical sector. Our process starts with identifying the right platform for a particular type of report, i.e., emails, LinkedIn, seminars, or telephonic conversation, as every report is unique and requires a differentiated approach.
We send out questionnaires to different experts from various regions/ countries, which is dependent on the following factors:
Report/Market scope: If the market study is global, we send questionnaires to industry experts across various regions, including North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and MEA.
Market Penetration: If the market is driven by technological advancements, population density, disease prevalence, or other factors, we identify experts and send out questionnaires based on region or country dominance.
The time to start receiving responses from industry experts varies based on how niche or well-penetrated the market is. Our reports include a detailed chapter on the KoL opinion section, which helps our clients understand the perspective of experts already in the market space.
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