Autonomous Last Mile Delivery Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report By Range (Short, Long), By Solution (Services, Software), By End-use (Food & Beverage, Retail), By Platform, And Segment Forecasts, 2023 - 2030

Report Overview

The global autonomous last mile delivery market size was valued at USD 1.14 billion in 2022 and is expected to register a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.5% from 2023 to 2030. The growth of the industry is attributed to the rising technological advancements in delivery vehicles along with the growing demand in the e-commerce industry. In addition, the development of aerial-based delivery drones, which operate in geographically difficult terrains and areas where regular vehicles or other services are difficult to reach along with the significant recognition of aerial-based delivery drones as an effective method of package delivery is anticipated to create several opportunities for the expansion and growth of the industry.

Furthermore, consumer preferences for fast delivery are now becoming the priority in the parcel delivery market owing to the growing e-commerce industry. Last-mile services have been identified as a major difference in the market by major e-commerce companies and numerous food and grocery delivery startups, which is expected to drive the industry growth during the forecast period. For instance, in January 2022, Ottonomy, Inc. introduced Ottobots, a range of fully autonomous delivery robots for restaurants and retail industries for the delivery of parcels in indoor and outdoor environments, which is expected to drive the autonomous last-mile delivery market growth over the forecast period.

In addition, the ongoing developments in autonomous last-mile delivery vehicles are expected to drive growth further during the forecast period. For instance, in March 2022, NVIDIA Corp., a graphics processor and AI company, partnered with Uber spinout, Serve Robotics, a sidewalk robot delivery company, and invested USD 10 million. The investment made by NVIDIA is expected to accelerate Serve Robotics’ path to widespread commercial use along with increasing geographical presence, which is anticipated to fuel the market growth in the coming years. In addition, data centers should be in place for the robots to communicate and function effectively and efficiently. Edge computing and deep learning technologies are allowing these data centers for low-latency data transfer and dependable robot operation, which will boost industry growth.

In addition, factors, such as technological developments, rising applications of drones in the commercial sector, and robotics venture funding are expected to contribute to the market growth significantly. The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the global industry. The pandemic has accelerated digitalization and increased the value of data for last-mile delivery. The preference for autonomous last-mile delivery vehicles became more prominent in the wake of COVID-19 as numerous use cases of autonomous delivery technology came into existence during the pandemic, which includes transportation services, and deliveries, among others. In addition, delivery drones created socially-distanced delivery services and more resilient supply chains.

Platform Insights

The ground delivery vehicles platform segment held the largest market share of 83% in 2022. The segment is further divided into self-driving vans and trucks and delivery bots. Several significant issues faced by the truck industry, including driver shortage and productivity, are anticipated to be tackled by ground delivery robots, which are expected to fuel the segment's growth. Furthermore, the execution of autonomous delivery robots is increasingly being influenced by continuously rising labor wages. The continuous developments in self-driving trucks and vans are anticipated to fuel the segment growth over the projection period.

The aerial delivery drones platform segment is anticipated to register the fastest CAGR during the forecast period. This is attributed to their ability to deliver packages by avoiding traffic congestion and unnecessary barriers. Moreover, advancement in technologies, such as geospatial mapping, IoT, and machine learning, in delivery drones results in higher accuracy in delivery, which is expected to drive segment growth. The segment is further fragmented into hybrid, fixed-wing, and rotary-wing types. The rotary-wing segment dominated the market in 2022 and is projected to continue a similar trend during the forecast period as these drones do not require any precise takeoff or landing equipment and can be used in confined and small spaces.

Solution Insights

The services segment is expected to register the highest CAGR of 34% over the forecast period. The Robot-as-a-Service (RaaS) model is being adopted by companies involved in the ecosystem of autonomous last-mile deliveries. The RaaS model enables small- and medium-sized businesses to lease robots without having to make a significant upfront investment. SMEs are therefore anticipated to embrace this business strategy in the coming years, which is projected to fuel the growth of the segment.

The hardware segment accounted for the largest revenue share in 2022 due to the development and upgradation of robots and their body frames. The implementation of multiple cameras on delivery vehicles to keep track of the vehicle and surrounding with a high resolution of up to 4K is fueling the segment growth. Moreover, the integration of sophisticated sensors along with AI technology for better control and performance throughout the delivery route is anticipated to drive the segment further.

Range Insights

The short-range (<20 kilometers) segment witnessed the largest revenue share of 87% in 2022. Numerous testing projects are being carried out for short distances as the autonomous delivery sector is still in its early stages. Typically, these projects are constrained to a small portion of the city or the campus of a single university. The use of robots for large distances is further constrained by security issues and a lack of public awareness. Therefore, the short-range segment is expected to dominate over the forecast period.

The long-range (>20 kilometers) segment is projected to register the highest CAGR over the forecast period. The growth of the segment is attributed to the rising demand for efficient and affordable parcel transportation over long distances. Moreover, the need to reduce carbon emissions & pollution in cities and the need for long-range autonomous ground robots is expected to drive the segment growth during the forecast period.

End-use Insights

The food & beverage end-use segment has witnessed the largest revenue share of 85% in 2022. The food & beverage industry is upgrading customer service to thrive in the competitive market. This is attributed to the deployment of food delivery robots in selected cities and on university campuses to deliver meals. With distinct compartments for hot and cold food products, these robots are specifically made for the F&B industry. In addition, companies including Nuro, Inc., Kiwi Campus (Kiwibot), and Wing Aviation LLC have teamed up with numerous neighborhood eateries and food vendors for delivery across the U.S., the U.K., and Australia. For instance, in September 2022, Nuro, Inc. partnered with Uber Technologies, Inc., a prominent autonomous vehicle company, to use electric, autonomous vehicles for the delivery of foods across the U.S., which is expected to drive the segment growth further.

The retail sector is expected to register the highest CAGR over the forecast period. The rapid growth of the e-commerce sector will require a strong logistics and distribution network. The industry’s supply chain model is disrupted by the willingness of consumers to pay extra for rapid delivery services. By offering alternative delivery methods like drones and automated delivery vehicles, technology is increasingly enabling the reduction of delivery times. As a result, e-commerce businesses like Alibaba Group, JD.com, and Amazon have resorted to cutting-edge technologies to increase productivity and lower the cost of last-mile deliveries, which is projected to drive growth further.

Regional Insights

North America accounted for the highest market share of over 46% in 2022 and is expected to retain its dominance during the forecast period. This is attributed to the ongoing developments in autonomous delivery robots, which led to a large number of pilot projects in the region. For instance, in May 2022, Uber Eats, a subsidiary of Uber Technologies, Inc., conducted two autonomous delivery projects in Los Angeles in collaboration with Motional, an autonomous vehicle technology company, and Serve Robotics, a robotic sidewalk delivery startup.

This is anticipated to fuel the regional market growth. Asia Pacific is expected to witness the highest CAGR during the forecast period. The ongoing development of autonomous last-mile delivery in countries, such as China and Japan, is a major factor responsible for the region’s growth. Furthermore, the presence of key players offering AI solutions, along with the growing awareness among business organizations for such technologies, is fueling the region’s growth.

Key Companies & Market Share Insights

Key players are offering and expanding their product portfolios by investing in product research & development and delivering competitive pricing, which embroiders industry rivalry. For instance, in January 2022, The Kroger Co. collaborated with Nuro, Inc., an American robotics company that enhances customer experience with the help of Nuro’s third-generation autonomous delivery vehicles. This is anticipated to boost the demand for the development of next-generation delivery robots further.

The competition in this industry is high, although technological advancements are allowing companies to save time and cost while increasing their efficiency and effectiveness. Constant R&D activities are leading to the industry becoming more common and standard even if it requires some investment. Due to globalization, the autonomous last-mile delivery trend is present in global markets over boundaries. Some of the prominent players in the global autonomous last mile delivery market are:

• Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.

• Amazon, Inc.

• Drone Delivery Canada Corp.

• Flytrex Inc.

• JD.com, Inc.

• Kiwi Campus (Kiwibot)

• Nuro, Inc.

• Refraction AI

• Shenzhen Yiqing Innovation Technology Co., Ltd. (Unity Drive Innovation)

• Starship Technologies

• TeleRetail

• Udelv Inc.

• Wing Aviation LLC

• A2Z Drone Delivery, LLC

Autonomous Last Mile Delivery Market Report Scope

Global Autonomous Last Mile Delivery Market Segmentation

This report forecasts revenue growth at global, regional, and country levels and provides an analysis of the latest industry trends in each of the sub-segments from 2018 to 2030. For the purpose of this study, Grand View Research has segmented the global autonomous last mile delivery market report based on platform, solution, range, end-use, and region:

• Platform Outlook (Revenue, USD Million, 2018 - 2030)

  • Ground Delivery Vehicles

    • Delivery Bots

    • Self-driving Vans & Trucks

  • Aerial Delivery Drones

    • Fixed-Wing

    • Rotary-Wing

    • Hybrid

• Solution Outlook (Revenue, USD Million, 2018 - 2030)

  • Hardware

  • Software

  • Service

• Range Outlook (Revenue, USD Million, 2018 - 2030)

  • Short Range (<20 Kilometers)

  • Long Range (>20 Kilometers)

• End-use Outlook (Revenue, USD Million, 2018 - 2030)

  • Food & Beverages

  • Retail

  • Healthcare

  • Others

• Regional Outlook (Revenue, USD Million, 2018 - 2030)

  • North America

    • U.S.

    • Canada

  • Europe

    • Germany

    • U.K.

    • France

  • Asia Pacific

    • China

    • Japan

    • South Korea

    • India

  • Latin America

    • Brazil

    • Mexico

  • Middle East and Africa