A three-pronged approach was followed for deducing the craft spirits market estimates and forecasts. The process has three steps: information procurement, analysis, and validation. The whole process is cyclical, and steps repeat until the estimates are validated. The three steps are explained in detail below:
Information procurement: Information procurement is one of the most extensive and important stages in our research process, and quality data is critical for accurate analysis. We followed a multi-channel data collection process for craft spirits market to gather the most reliable and current information possible.
Analysis: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilized different methods of craft spirits market data depending on the type of information we’re trying to uncover in our research.
Market Research Efforts: Bottom-up Approach for estimating and forecasting demand size and opportunity, top-down Approach for new product forecasting and penetration, and combined approach of both Bottom-up and Top-down for full coverage analysis.
Value-Chain-Based Sizing & Forecasting: Supply-side estimates for understanding potential revenue through competitive benchmarking, forecasting, and penetration modeling.
Demand-side estimates for identifying parent and ancillary markets, segment modeling, and heuristic forecasting.
Qualitative Functional Deployment (QFD) Modelling for market share assessment.
Market formulation and validation: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilize different methods of data analysis depending on the type of information we’re trying to uncover in our research.
Market Formulation: This step involves the finalization of market numbers. This step on an internal level is designed to manage outputs from the Data Analysis step.
Data Normalization: The final market estimates and forecasts are then aligned and sent to industry experts, in-panel quality control managers for validation.
This step also entails the finalization of the report scope and data representation pattern.
Validation: The process entails multiple levels of validation. All these steps run in parallel, and the study is forwarded for publishing only if all three levels render validated results.
The craft spirits market was categorized into four segments, namely product (Whiskey, Vodka, Gin, Rum, Brandy, Liqueur), distribution (On-Trade, Off-Trade), and regions (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Central & South America, Middle East & Africa).
The craft spirits market was segmented into product, distribution, and regions. The demand at a segment level was deduced using a funnel method. Concepts like the TAM, SAM, SOM, etc., were put into practice to understand the demand. We at GVR deploy three methods to deduce market estimates and determine forecasts. These methods are explained below:
Demand estimation of each product across countries/regions summed up to from the total market.
Variable analysis for demand forecast.
Demand estimation via analyzing paid database, and company financials either via annual reports or paid database.
Primary interviews for data revalidation and insight collection.
Used extensively for new product forecasting or analyzing penetration levels.
Tool used invoice product flow and penetration models Use of regression multi-variant analysis for forecasting Involves extensive use of paid and public databases.
Primary interviews and vendor-based primary research for variable impact analysis.
The craft spirits market was analyzed at a regional level. The globe was divided into North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Central & South America, and Middle East & Africa, keeping in focus variables like consumption patterns, export-import regulations, consumer expectations, etc. These regions were further divided into seventeen countries, namely, the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Germany, UK., Spain, Italy, France, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia & New Zealand, Brazil, Argentina, South Africa, UAE
All three above-mentioned market research methodologies were applied to arrive at regional-level conclusions. The regions were then summed up to form the global market.
The craft spirits market was analyzed via companies operating in the sector. Analyzing these companies and cross-referencing them to the demand equation helped us validate our assumptions and conclusions. Key market players analyzed include:
Heaven Hill Distilleries, Inc. is the fourth-largest spirits supplier in the U.S. and produces and markets the Heaven Hill brand of Kentucky Straight Bourbon Whiskey.
Diageo has a collection of 200 brands—old, new, large and small, global and local—which are enjoyed in more than 180 countries around the globe. It is a major distributor of spirits and the world’s largest producer of Scotch Whiskey.
Pernod Ricard is the world’s second-largest wine and spirits seller. Its brands are distributed in more than 160 countries with 94 production sites across over 24 countries.
Constellation Brands, Inc.’s brand portfolio consists of Corona Extra, Modelo Especial, Kim Crawford, Meiomi, The Prisoner, SVEDKA vodka, and High West whiskey. It has a global reach in 12 countries with a workforce of more than 10,000 employees. It is a producer and marketer of wine, beer, and spirits and is the fastest-growing CPG company in the U.S. at a retail level.
Suntory Holdings Limited owns around 285 groups of companies with a workforce of more than 40,000. The Group has its operations throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Oceania.
Bacardi-Martini B.V. is the world’s largest privately-held spirits company founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda. Bacardi Limited refers to the Bacardi group of companies, which includes Bacardi International Limited. It has a portfolio of more than 200 brands in over 170 countries with a workforce of more than 7000 employees. Its brand portfolio includes Bacardi rum, Bombay Sapphire gin, Martini vermouth, Grey Goose vodka, Patron tequila, and Dewar’s Blended scotch whiskey.
Campari Group trades under the parent company Davide Campari-Milano N.V. It has a portfolio of over 50 premium brands spread across global, regional, and local priorities. It is the sixth-largest player in the world with leading positions in Europe and America.
SAZERAC CO, INC. provides services like brand management and cocktails, cordials, Cognac, Bourbon, and shooters. Buffalo Trace Distillery claimed the global title of ‘Distiller of the Year’ in 2022 and the Icons of Whiskey award presented by Whiskey Magazine.
Highwood Distillers Ltd. is a Canadian privately-owned and operated distillery, producing high quality spirits from Canadian grain and pure water. It markets its products in Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, and northwest territories of Canada. The company produces a portfolio of fine spirits, pre mixes, and liqueurs for sale in Canada, the U.S., and overseas.
Copper Fox Distillery is the only distillery to mature their whiskey with toasted Applewood. It is the first distillery in the U.S. to floor malt their own barley, a traditional practice that is now maintained in only six Scottish distilleries.
Supply Side Estimates
Company revenue estimation via referring to annual reports, investor presentations, and Hoover’s.
Segment revenue determination via variable analysis and penetration modeling.
Competitive benchmarking to identify market leaders and their collective revenue shares.
Forecasting via analyzing commercialization rates, pipelines, market initiatives, distribution networks, etc.
Demand side estimates
Identifying parent markets and ancillary markets
Segment penetration analysis to obtain pertinent
Heuristic forecasting with the help of subject matter experts
Forecasting via variable analysis
Understanding market dynamics (in terms of drivers, restraints, & opportunities) in the countries.
Understanding trends & variables in the individual countries & their impact on growth and using analytical tools to provide high-level insights into the market dynamics and the associated growth pattern.
Understanding market estimates and forecasts (with the base year as 2022, historic information from 2018 to 2023, and forecast from 2024 to 2030). Regional estimates & forecasts for each category are available and are summed up to form the global market estimates.
The report provides market value for the base year 2022 and a yearly forecast till 2030 in terms of revenue/volume or both. The market for each of the segment outlooks has been provided on region & country basis for the above-mentioned forecast period.
The key industry dynamics, major technological trends, and application markets are evaluated to understand their impact on the demand for the forecast period. The growth rates were estimated using correlation, regression, and time-series analysis.
We have used the bottom-up approach for market sizing, analyzing key regional markets, dynamics, & trends for various products and end-users. The total market has been estimated by integrating the country markets.
All market estimates and forecasts have been validated through primary interviews with the key industry participants.
Inflation has not been accounted for to estimate and forecast the market.
Numbers may not add up due to rounding off.
Europe consists of EU-8, Central & Eastern Europe, along with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Asia Pacific includes South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania (Australia & New Zealand).
Latin America includes Central American countries and the South American continent
Middle East includes Western Asia (as assigned by the UN Statistics Division) and the African continent.
GVR strives to procure the latest and unique information for reports directly from industry experts, which gives it a competitive edge. Quality is of utmost importance to us, therefore every year we focus on increasing our experts’ panel. Primary interviews are one of the critical steps in identifying recent market trends and scenarios. This process enables us to justify and validate our market estimates and forecasts to our clients. With more than 8,000 reports in our database, we have connected with some key opinion leaders across various domains, including healthcare, technology, consumer goods, and the chemical sector. Our process starts with identifying the right platform for a particular type of report, i.e., emails, LinkedIn, seminars, or telephonic conversation, as every report is unique and requires a differentiated approach.
We send out questionnaires to different experts from various regions/ countries, which is dependent on the following factors:
Report/Market scope: If the market study is global, we send questionnaires to industry experts across various regions, including North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and MEA.
Market Penetration: If the market is driven by technological advancements, population density, disease prevalence, or other factors, we identify experts and send out questionnaires based on region or country dominance.
The time to start receiving responses from industry experts varies based on how niche or well-penetrated the market is. Our reports include a detailed chapter on the KoL opinion section, which helps our clients understand the perspective of experts already in the market space.
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