Legal Marijuana Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report By Application (Medical, Adult Use), By Product Type (Flower, Oils and Tinctures), By Region, And Segment Forecasts, 2024 - 2030

Research Methodology

A three-pronged approach was followed for deducing the legal marijuana market estimates and forecasts. The process has three steps: information procurement, analysis, and validation. The whole process is cyclical, and steps repeat until the estimates are validated. The three steps are explained in detail below:

Information procurement: Information procurement is one of the most extensive and important stages in our research process, and quality data is critical for accurate analysis. We followed a multi-channel data collection process for legal marijuana market to gather the most reliable and current information possible.

• We buy access to paid databases such as Hoover’s and Factiva for company financials, industry information, white papers, industry journals, SME journals, and more.
• We tap into Grand View’s proprietary database of data points and insights from active and archived monitoring and reporting.
• We conduct primary research with industry experts through questionnaires and one-on-one phone interviews.
• We pull from reliable secondary sources such as white papers and government statistics, published by organizations like WHO, NGOs, World Bank, etc., Key Opinion Leaders (KoL) publications, company filings, investor documents, and more.
• We purchase and review investor analyst reports, broker reports, academic commentary, government quotes, and wealth management publications for insightful third-party perspectives.

Analysis: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilized different methods of legal marijuana market data depending on the type of information we were trying to uncover in our research.

• Market Research Efforts: Bottom-up Approach for estimating and forecasting demand size and opportunity, top-down Approach for new product forecasting and penetration, and combined approach of both Bottom-up and Top-down for full coverage analysis.

• Value-Chain-Based Sizing & Forecasting: Supply-side estimates for understanding potential revenue through competitive benchmarking, forecasting, and penetration modeling.

• Demand-side estimates for identifying parent and ancillary markets, segment modeling, and heuristic forecasting.

• Qualitative Functional Deployment (QFD) Modelling for market share assessment.

Market formulation and validation: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilize different methods of data analysis depending on the type of information we’re trying to uncover in our research.

• Market Formulation: This step involves the finalization of market numbers. This step on an internal level is designed to manage outputs from the Data Analysis step.

• Data Normalization: The final market estimates and forecasts are then aligned and sent to industry experts, in-panel quality control managers for validation.

• This step also entails the finalization of the report scope and data representation pattern.

• Validation: The process entails multiple levels of validation. All these steps run in parallel, and the study is forwarded for publishing only if all three levels render validated results.

Legal Marijuana Market Categorization:

The legal marijuana market was categorized into three segments, namely product type (Flower, Oil and Tinctures), application (Medical, Adult Use), and region (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Africa).

Segment Market Methodology:

The legal marijuana market was segmented into product type, application, and regions. The demand at a segment level was deduced using a funnel method. Concepts like the TAM, SAM, SOM, etc., were put into practice to understand the demand. We at GVR deploy three methods to deduce market estimates and determine forecasts. These methods are explained below:

Market research approaches: Bottom-up

• Demand estimation of each product across countries/regions summed up to from the total market.

• Variable analysis for demand forecast.

• Demand estimation via analyzing paid database, and company financials either via annual reports or paid database.

• Primary interviews for data revalidation and insight collection.

Market research approaches: Top-down

• Used extensively for new product forecasting or analyzing penetration levels.

• Tool used invoice product flow and penetration models Use of regression multi-variant analysis for forecasting Involves extensive use of paid and public databases.

• Primary interviews and vendor-based primary research for variable impact analysis.

Market research approaches: Combined

• This is the most common method. We apply concepts from both the top-down and bottom-up approaches to arrive at a viable conclusion.

Regional Market Methodology:

The legal marijuana market was analyzed at a regional level. The globe was divided into North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Africa, keeping in focus variables like consumption patterns, export-import regulations, consumer expectations, etc. These regions were further divided into twenty-one countries, namely, the U.S.; Canada; the UK; Germany; Italy; Netherlands; Croatia; Poland; Czech Republic; Switzerland; Spain; China; Japan; India; Thailand; New Zealand; Australia; Uruguay; Colombia; Mexico; Brazil.

All three above-mentioned market research methodologies were applied to arrive at regional-level conclusions. The regions were then summed up to form the global market.

Legal marijuana market companies & financials:

The legal marijuana market was analyzed via companies operating in the sector. Analyzing these companies and cross-referencing them to the demand equation helped us validate our assumptions and conclusions. Key market players analyzed include:

• Canopy Growth Corporation -Canopy Growth Corporation produces and distributes medical cannabis. The company operates through its subsidiaries that are involved in production, packaging, and distribution of marijuana. The product offerings of Canopy include dried flowers, oils, concentrates, soft gel capsules, and hemp. The 3 key brands of the company include Tweed, Inc.; Bedrocan Canada; and Mettrum (now known as Spectrum Cannabis). The company sells and promotes its products through Tweed Main Street.

• Aphria, Inc. -Aphria, Inc. is involved in the production and selling of medical marijuana and its derivatives, including cannabis oil. The company also provides consultation to patients and physicians. The company delivers its products through its website and e-commerce channel. It markets sativa, indica, and hybrid varieties of marijuana. Broken Coast Cannabis Ltd.; Broken Coast Cannabis Ltd.; FL-Group; ASG Pharma Ltd.; Cannan Growers, Inc.; and Pure Natures Wellness, Inc. are some of the key subsidiaries of the company.

• Aurora Cannabis - Aurora Cannabis produces and distributes dried cannabis and cannabis oil. The company provides variety of cannabis strains with different THC and CBD levels. Aurora Cannabis offers indica, sativa, and hybrid varieties of cannabis. It also provides patients consultation and information on cannabis. The company is vertically integrated, as it is involved in cultivation, development, research, and supply of cannabis to retailers. 

• Wayland Group Corp- Wayland Group Corp. previously known as Maricann, Inc., is a producer and distributor of medical marijuana. The company’s product portfolio comprises cannabis oil & buds. Wayland also supplies marijuana plants for home growers. The company caters to the Canadian medical marijuana market, however, has presence in other emerging medical marijuana markets, including Germany, as well.

• Tilray- Tilray is a privately held company involved in cultivation, processing, and marketing of medical marijuana. The company has GMP certified unit that processes cannabis flowers and other extracts. The company’s customer base includes pharmacies, physicians, patients, hospitals, government, and researchers. It was the first producer licensed to legally export cannabis products from North America to the South America, Australia, European Union, and New Zealand. The product portfolio of Tilray includes whole marijuana flower, ground marijuana, and marijuana drops & capsules. The company also sells accessories like vaporizers and storage containers.

• GW Pharmaceuticals, PLC. - GW Pharmaceuticals, plc is a UK based biopharmaceutical company focused on developing, discovering, and commercializing novel therapeutics based on marijuana for a variety of diseases. The company has received 'Orphan Drug Designation' from the U.S. FDA for its product Epidiolex for treating Dravet syndrome, Lennox- Gastaut syndrome, Infantile Spasms (IS), and Tuberous Sclerosis Complex. Furthermore, the product has also received Fast Track Designation from the FDA, and Orphan Designation from the European Medicines Agency for Epidiolex.

• United Cannabis Corporation - United Cannabis Corporation is a biotechnology company involved in the development of marijuana-based medicinal products. The company is vertically integrated as it is actively involved in the production, manufacturing, marketing, and distribution of medical marijuana and its infused products in the US market. The company has partnered with several local entrepreneurs, businessmen, and government agencies for widening its marijuana product portfolio.

• Tikun Olam, Ltd. - Tikun Olam Ltd is a privately held producer of medical cannabis in Israel. It is the first and the largest supplier of medical marijuana in Israel and is globally known as the pioneer of modern medical cannabis. The company is vertically integrated as it is involved in activities ranging from cultivation to administration of marijuana. The company has established a notable presence in countries such as the U.S., the UK, Canada, and Australia.

• Cannabis Sativa, Inc.- Cannabis Sativa, Inc. is a vertically integrated company involved in the production, research, development, and licensing of products including cannabis formulas, topicals, strains, recipes, edibles, and drug delivery systems. It produces and develops marijuana products through joint ventures with companies licensed under state regulations. Moreover, the company is also engaged in the development of third-party strains of the cannabis plant. It operates in the market through its subsidiary named Wild Earth Naturals, Inc.

• Organigram Holdings, Inc. - Organigram Holdings, Inc. markets its products through its subsidiary—Organigram, Inc. The company produces and markets medical cannabis within Canada. It offers a broad portfolio of cannabis oils. Some of the key brands of the company include Banook, Rossignol, Shubie, and Utopia. Organigram is a licensed medical cannabis producer regulated by the Marihuana Medical Access Regulation (MMAR) of the government of Canada.

Value chain-based sizing & forecasting

Supply Side Estimates

• Company revenue estimation via referring to annual reports, investor presentations, and Hoover’s.

• Segment revenue determination via variable analysis and penetration modeling.

• Competitive benchmarking to identify market leaders and their collective revenue shares.

• Forecasting via analyzing commercialization rates, pipelines, market initiatives, distribution networks, etc.

Demand side estimates

• Identifying parent markets and ancillary markets

• Segment penetration analysis to obtain pertinent

• revenue/volume

• Heuristic forecasting with the help of subject matter experts

• Forecasting via variable analysis

Legal Marijuana Market Report Objectives:

• Understanding market dynamics (in terms of drivers, restraints, & opportunities) in the countries.

• Understanding trends & variables in the individual countries & their impact on growth and using analytical tools to provide high-level insights into the market dynamics and the associated growth pattern.

• Understanding market estimates and forecasts (with the base year as 2022, historic information from 2016 to 2021, and forecast from 2023 to 2030). Regional estimates & forecasts for each category are available and are summed up to form the global market estimates.

Legal Marijuana Market Report Assumptions:

• The report provides market value for the base year 2022 and a yearly forecast till 2030 in terms of revenue/volume or both. The market for each of the segment outlooks has been provided on region & country basis for the above-mentioned forecast period.

• The key industry dynamics, major technological trends, and application markets are evaluated to understand their impact on the demand for the forecast period. The growth rates were estimated using correlation, regression, and time-series analysis.

• We have used the bottom-up approach for market sizing, analyzing key regional markets, dynamics, & trends for various products and end-users. The total market has been estimated by integrating the country markets.

• All market estimates and forecasts have been validated through primary interviews with the key industry participants.

• Inflation has not been accounted for to estimate and forecast the market.

• Numbers may not add up due to rounding off.

• Europe consists of EU-8, Central & Eastern Europe, along with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

• Asia Pacific includes South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania (Australia & New Zealand).

• Latin America includes Central American countries and the South American continent

• Middle East includes Western Asia (as assigned by the UN Statistics Division) and the African continent.

Primary Research

GVR strives to procure the latest and unique information for reports directly from industry experts, which gives it a competitive edge. Quality is of utmost importance to us, therefore every year we focus on increasing our experts’ panel. Primary interviews are one of the critical steps in identifying recent market trends and scenarios. This process enables us to justify and validate our market estimates and forecasts to our clients. With more than 8,000 reports in our database, we have connected with some key opinion leaders across various domains, including healthcare, technology, consumer goods, and the chemical sector. Our process starts with identifying the right platform for a particular type of report, i.e., emails, LinkedIn, seminars, or telephonic conversation, as every report is unique and requires a differentiated approach.

We send out questionnaires to different experts from various regions/ countries, which is dependent on the following factors:

• Report/Market scope: If the market study is global, we send questionnaires to industry experts across various regions, including North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and MEA.

• Market Penetration: If the market is driven by technological advancements, population density, disease prevalence, or other factors, we identify experts and send out questionnaires based on region or country dominance.

The time to start receiving responses from industry experts varies based on how niche or well-penetrated the market is. Our reports include a detailed chapter on the KoL opinion section, which helps our clients understand the perspective of experts already in the market space.