mRNA Therapeutics Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report By Application (Rare Genetic Diseases, Oncology, Respiratory Diseases, Infectious Diseases), By Type (Prophylactic, Therapeutic), By End-use, By Region, And Segment Forecasts, 2024 - 2030

Research Methodology

A three-pronged approach was followed for deducing the mRNA therapeutics market estimates and forecasts. The process has three steps: information procurement, analysis, and validation. The whole process is cyclical, and steps repeat until the estimates are validated. The three steps are explained in detail below:

Information procurement: Information procurement is one of the most extensive and important stages in our research process, and quality data is critical for accurate analysis. We followed a multi-channel data collection process for mRNA therapeutics market to gather the most reliable and current information possible.

• We buy access to paid databases such as Hoover’s and Factiva for company financials, industry information, white papers, industry journals, SME journals, and more.
• We tap into Grand View’s proprietary database of data points and insights from active and archived monitoring and reporting.
• We conduct primary research with industry experts through questionnaires and one-on-one phone interviews.
• We pull from reliable secondary sources such as white papers and government statistics, published by organizations like WHO, NGOs, World Bank, etc., Key Opinion Leaders (KoL) publications, company filings, investor documents, and more.
• We purchase and review investor analyst reports, broker reports, academic commentary, government quotes, and wealth management publications for insightful third-party perspectives.

Analysis: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilized different methods of mRNA therapeutics market data depending on the type of information we’re trying to uncover in our research.

• Market Research Efforts: Bottom-up Approach for estimating and forecasting demand size and opportunity, top-down Approach for new product forecasting and penetration, and combined approach of both Bottom-up and Top-down for full coverage analysis.

• Value-Chain-Based Sizing & Forecasting: Supply-side estimates for understanding potential revenue through competitive benchmarking, forecasting, and penetration modeling.

• Demand-side estimates for identifying parent and ancillary markets, segment modeling, and heuristic forecasting.

• Qualitative Functional Deployment (QFD) Modelling for market share assessment.

Market formulation and validation: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilize different methods of data analysis depending on the type of information we’re trying to uncover in our research.

• Market Formulation: This step involves the finalization of market numbers. This step on an internal level is designed to manage outputs from the Data Analysis step.

• Data Normalization: The final market estimates and forecasts are then aligned and sent to industry experts, in-panel quality control managers for validation.

• This step also entails the finalization of the report scope and data representation pattern.

• Validation: The process entails multiple levels of validation. All these steps run in parallel, and the study is forwarded for publishing only if all three levels render validated results.

mRNA Therapeutics Market Categorization:

The mRNA therapeutics market was categorized into four segments, namely application (Rare Genetic Diseases, Oncology, Respiratory Diseases, Infectious Diseases), type (Prophylactic Vaccines, Therapeutic Vaccines, Therapeutic Drugs), end-use (Hospitals & Clinics, Research Organizations), and regions (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Middle East & Africa).

Segment Market Methodology:

The mRNA therapeutics market was segmented into application, type, end-use, and regions. The demand at a segment level was deduced using a funnel method. Concepts like the TAM, SAM, SOM, etc., were put into practice to understand the demand. We at GVR deploy three methods to deduce market estimates and determine forecasts. These methods are explained below:

Market research approaches: Bottom-up

• Demand estimation of each product across countries/regions summed up to from the total market.

• Variable analysis for demand forecast.

• Demand estimation via analyzing paid database, and company financials either via annual reports or paid database.

• Primary interviews for data revalidation and insight collection.

Market research approaches: Top-down

• Used extensively for new product forecasting or analyzing penetration levels.

• Tool used invoice product flow and penetration models Use of regression multi-variant analysis for forecasting Involves extensive use of paid and public databases.

• Primary interviews and vendor-based primary research for variable impact analysis.

Market research approaches: Combined

• This is the most common method. We apply concepts from both the top-down and bottom-up approaches to arrive at a viable conclusion.

Regional Market Methodology:

The mRNA therapeutics market was analyzed at a regional level. The globe was divided into North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Middle East & Africa, keeping in focus variables like consumption patterns, export-import regulations, consumer expectations, etc. These regions were further divided into seventeen countries, namely, the U.S.; Canada; Germany; the UK.; France, Italy, Spain, China; Japan; India, Australia, South Korea, Brazil; Mexico, South Africa; Saudi Arabia, and UAE

All three above-mentioned market research methodologies were applied to arrive at regional-level conclusions. The regions were then summed up to form the global market.

mRNA therapeutics market companies & financials:

The mRNA therapeutics market was analyzed via companies operating in the sector. Analyzing these companies and cross-referencing them to the demand equation helped us validate our assumptions and conclusions. Key market players analyzed include:

• Moderna, Inc.: Moderna is a biotechnology company that focuses on the discovery & development of mRNA vaccines and therapeutics. The company develops mRNA medicines for cardiovascular, infectious, and immuno-oncological diseases.

• BioNTech SE: BioNTech focuses on developing cancer therapeutics, vaccines, and individualized immunotherapy for various diseases like COVID-19. Its oncology pipeline includes numerous drug classes like mRNA-based drugs to encode bispecific antibodies, cytokines, small-molecule immunomodulators, neoantigens, cell therapies, antibodies, and antigens.

• CureVac N.V.: CureVac NV is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical firm specializing in the advancement of RNA-based medicines. The company focuses on the development, design, and production of messenger RNA molecules for therapeutic & preventive vaccines, particularly in the fields of infectious diseases and oncology. The company is actively involved in R&D, with its lead oncology candidate, Cv8102, designed to influence the tumor microenvironment. The company's products find application in treating conditions such as prostate cancer and nonsmall cell lung cancer, along with addressing infectious diseases like rabies, rotavirus, and influenza.

• Arcturus Therapeutic: Arcturus Therapeutics is a pharmaceutical company that focuses on developing a diverse portfolio of nucleic acid therapeutics for treating diseases. The company specializes in the discovery & development of RNA medicines and employs lipid-mediated drug delivery systems in its design. Arcturus provides messenger RNA mRNA for protein replacement therapy, particularly for treating diseases caused by a lack of protein or defective proteins, such as cystic fibrosis. Its RNA Therapeutics programs cover a range of conditions, including rare diseases, Hepatitis B, Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH), cystic fibrosis, and efforts related to COVID-19.

• Sanofi (Translate Bio, Inc.): Sanofi is engaged in R&D, manufacture, & marketing of therapeutic solutions in the fields of diabetes, human vaccines, innovative drugs, consumer healthcare, cardiovascular diseases, internal medicine, thrombosis, cancer, arthritis, central nervous system, osteoporosis, primary healthcare, vaccines, animal health, and Genzyme. Every year, 500 million people are immunized with vaccines from Sanofi Pasteur, and 2.5 million doses are produced daily. The company has a presence in 90 countries and has 69 manufacturing sites in 32 countries.

• GSK plc: GSK plc is a healthcare company engaged in three businesses globally, which include R&D and manufacture of innovative pharmaceutical medicines, vaccines, & consumer healthcare products. The company aims to develop high-quality products. The pharmaceutical business consists of a broad portfolio of commercially available innovative & established medicines for respiratory diseases and AIDS. The company’s R&D focuses on developing recombinant DNA vaccines and adjuvants. It majorly invests in scientific & technical excellence to develop and launch pipeline products that meet the needs of patients, consumers, & payers. The company developed 582 million doses of vaccines at 12 manufacturing sites in 2020. Its consumer healthcare business includes innovative brands recommended by experts and preferred by consumers.

• Argos Therapeutics Inc.: Argos Therapeutics, Inc. is an immune-oncology company that concentrates on the advancement & commercialization of personalized immunotherapies for the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases in North America. The company is actively developing immunotherapies utilizing its proprietary technology platform, Arcelis. One of its key product candidates is rocapuldencel-T, currently in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of metastatic renal cell carcinoma. In addition, it is working on AGS-004, which is undergoing Phase II clinical trials to treat Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). In February 2019, the company was acquired by SCM Life Science and Genexine. However, the company is operating independently.

• Ethris: The company specializes in mRNA-based therapeutics and vaccines designed to treat patients with respiratory disorders & infectious diseases. Their innovative mRNA-modification technology, along with proprietary Lipid Nanoparticle (LNP) formulation and delivery platforms, offers versatile options for delivering multiple cargoes through various routes such as intramuscular, inhaled, or nasal administration. This technology is well-suited for various genetic medicine payloads, including mRNA and gene editing tools like CRISPR & Cas. The company's approach allows healthcare providers to address monogenic genetic diseases and develop personalized vaccines for tumor treatment.

• Pfizer Inc.: Pfizer, Inc. manufactures and offers products for a wide range of diseases, including diabetes, immunological conditions, cardiac disorders, cancers, and dermatological disorders. It operates through two segments: Innovative Health and Essential Health. The company serves five sectors: primary care, oncology, animal & consumer healthcare, emerging economies, and nutrition.

• AstraZeneca PLC.: AstraZeneca PLC is a publicly owned pharmaceutical company involved in the manufacturing and marketing of primary care & specialty care medicines. The company focuses on cardiovascular & metabolic diseases, respiratory, neuroscience, infection & vaccines, oncology, and inflammation & autoimmunity. The company has collaborated and partnered with various organizations to develop regenerative therapies. Some of its partners are FibroGen, Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Cooperation, Karolinska Institute, Harvard Stem Cell Institute, Ionis, Max Planck Institute of Molecular Physiology, Moderna, NGM Biopharmaceuticals, andRegulus Therapeutics. The company is globally present with research centers in the U.S., Sweden, China, and Japan.

Value chain-based sizing & forecasting

Supply Side Estimates

• Company revenue estimation via referring to annual reports, investor presentations, and Hoover’s.

• Segment revenue determination via variable analysis and penetration modeling.

• Competitive benchmarking to identify market leaders and their collective revenue shares.

• Forecasting via analyzing commercialization rates, pipelines, market initiatives, distribution networks, etc.

Demand side estimates

• Identifying parent markets and ancillary markets

• Segment penetration analysis to obtain pertinent

• revenue/volume

• Heuristic forecasting with the help of subject matter experts

• Forecasting via variable analysis

mRNA Therapeutics Market Report Objectives:

• Understanding market dynamics (in terms of drivers, restraints, & opportunities) in the countries.

• Understanding trends & variables in the individual countries & their impact on growth and using analytical tools to provide high-level insights into the market dynamics and the associated growth pattern.

• Understanding market estimates and forecasts (with the base year as 2021, historic information from 2020 to 2021, and forecast from 2022 to 2030). Regional estimates & forecasts for each category are available and are summed up to form the global market estimates.

mRNA Therapeutics Market Report Assumptions:

• The report provides market value for the base year 2022 and a yearly forecast till 2030 in terms of revenue/volume or both. The market for each of the segment outlooks has been provided on region & country basis for the above-mentioned forecast period.

• The key industry dynamics, major technological trends, and application markets are evaluated to understand their impact on the demand for the forecast period. The growth rates were estimated using correlation, regression, and time-series analysis.

• We have used the bottom-up approach for market sizing, analyzing key regional markets, dynamics, & trends for various products and end-users. The total market has been estimated by integrating the country markets.

• All market estimates and forecasts have been validated through primary interviews with the key industry participants.

• Inflation has not been accounted for to estimate and forecast the market.

• Numbers may not add up due to rounding off.

• Europe consists of EU-8, Central & Eastern Europe, along with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

• Asia Pacific includes South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania (Australia & New Zealand).

• Latin America includes Central American countries and the South American continent

• Middle East includes Western Asia (as assigned by the UN Statistics Division) and the African continent.

Primary Research

GVR strives to procure the latest and unique information for reports directly from industry experts, which gives it a competitive edge. Quality is of utmost importance to us, therefore every year we focus on increasing our experts’ panel. Primary interviews are one of the critical steps in identifying recent market trends and scenarios. This process enables us to justify and validate our market estimates and forecasts to our clients. With more than 8,000 reports in our database, we have connected with some key opinion leaders across various domains, including healthcare, technology, consumer goods, and the chemical sector. Our process starts with identifying the right platform for a particular type of report, i.e., emails, LinkedIn, seminars, or telephonic conversation, as every report is unique and requires a differentiated approach.

We send out questionnaires to different experts from various regions/ countries, which is dependent on the following factors:

• Report/Market scope: If the market study is global, we send questionnaires to industry experts across various regions, including North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and MEA.

• Market Penetration: If the market is driven by technological advancements, population density, disease prevalence, or other factors, we identify experts and send out questionnaires based on region or country dominance.

The time to start receiving responses from industry experts varies based on how niche or well-penetrated the market is. Our reports include a detailed chapter on the KoL opinion section, which helps our clients understand the perspective of experts already in the market space.