A three-pronged approach was followed for deducing the nail polish market estimates and forecasts. The process has three steps: information procurement, analysis, and validation. The whole process is cyclical, and steps repeat until the estimates are validated. The three steps are explained in detail below:
Information procurement: Information procurement is one of the most extensive and important stages in our research process, and quality data is critical for accurate analysis. We followed a multi-channel data collection process for nail polish market to gather the most reliable and current information possible.
Analysis: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilized different methods of nail polish market data depending on the type of information we’re trying to uncover in our research.
Market Research Efforts: Bottom-up Approach for estimating and forecasting demand size and opportunity, top-down Approach for new product forecasting and penetration, and combined approach of both Bottom-up and Top-down for full coverage analysis.
Value-Chain-Based Sizing & Forecasting: Supply-side estimates for understanding potential revenue through competitive benchmarking, forecasting, and penetration modeling.
Demand-side estimates for identifying parent and ancillary markets, segment modeling, and heuristic forecasting.
Qualitative Functional Deployment (QFD) Modelling for market share assessment.
Market formulation and validation: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilize different methods of data analysis depending on the type of information we’re trying to uncover in our research.
Market Formulation: This step involves the finalization of market numbers. This step on an internal level is designed to manage outputs from the Data Analysis step.
Data Normalization: The final market estimates and forecasts are then aligned and sent to industry experts, in-panel quality control managers for validation.
This step also entails the finalization of the report scope and data representation pattern.
Validation: The process entails multiple levels of validation. All these steps run in parallel, and the study is forwarded for publishing only if all three levels render validated results.
The nail polish market was categorized into four segments, namely product (Regular Nail Polish, UV Gel Nail Polish, Dip Powder, Acrylic, Polygel), distribution (Supermarkets & Hypermarkets, Pharmacies & Drugstores, Specialty Beauty Stores, Salons & Spas, E-commerce/Online), and regions (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa, Central & South America).
The nail polish market was segmented into product, distribution, and regions. The demand at a segment level was deduced using a funnel method. Concepts like the TAM, SAM, SOM, etc., were put into practice to understand the demand. We at GVR deploy three methods to deduce market estimates and determine forecasts. These methods are explained below:
Demand estimation of each product across countries/regions summed up to from the total market.
Variable analysis for demand forecast.
Demand estimation via analyzing paid database, and company financials either via annual reports or paid database.
Primary interviews for data revalidation and insight collection.
Used extensively for new product forecasting or analyzing penetration levels.
Tool used invoice product flow and penetration models Use of regression multi-variant analysis for forecasting Involves extensive use of paid and public databases.
Primary interviews and vendor-based primary research for variable impact analysis.
The nail polish market was analyzed at a regional level. The globe was divided into North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and Middle East & Africa, Central & South America, keeping in focus variables like consumption patterns, export-import regulations, consumer expectations, etc. These regions were further divided into fifteen countries, namely, the U.S.; Canada; Mexico; Germany; U.K.; France; Spain; Italy; China; Japan; India; South Korea; Australia & New Zealand; Brazil; South Africa
All three above-mentioned market research methodologies were applied to arrive at regional-level conclusions. The regions were then summed up to form the global market.
The nail polish market was analyzed via companies operating in the sector. Analyzing these companies and cross-referencing them to the demand equation helped us validate our assumptions and conclusions. Key market players analyzed include:
Unilever is a multinational consumer goods company with a diverse portfolio of cleaning agents, food, beverages, and personal care products. The brands under the company operate under five groups—beauty and wellbeing, personal care, home care, nutrition, and ice cream. Unilever is active in more than 190 countries, with a portfolio of more than 400 brands. The company focuses on environmental sustainability and takes active steps to minimize the impact of its operations on the environment. Unilever has about 280 factories worldwide. Elle 18 and Lakme are some of Unilever’s prominent brands for nail polish. The company sells beauty and personal care products under brands like Elle 18, Lakme, Vaseline, Clear, Dermalogica, Hourglass, Tatcha, Rexona, Axe, Lifebuoy, Pepsodent, and Aim.
Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. is a manufacturer, marketer, and distributor of skincare, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products. Its portfolio comprises renowned brands such as Aramis, Origins, M·A·C, Estée Lauder, Smashbox, KILIAN PARIS, Dr.Jart+, La Mer, Bobbi Brown Cosmetics, Jo Malone London, and Lab Series. The company reaches customers through various retail channels, including e-commerce, travel retail, and physical stores. Its commitment to sustainability includes reducing emissions, improving water efficiency, and adopting eco-friendly building practices to minimize environmental impact.
Shiseido Co., Ltd. is a manufacturer, distributor, retailer, and seller of skincare, cosmetics, fragrance, and personal care products. The company owns numerous brands and subsidiaries globally, in addition to its founding label, Shiseido. The company has a wide product portfolio segmented into categories such as skincare, sunscreen, makeup, and men. The company sells its personal care and makeup products under brands such as NARS, SHISEIDO, ELIXIR, Clé de Peau Beauté, BENEFIQUE, ANESSA, IPSA, bareMinerals, MAQuillAGE, INTEGRATE, AUPRES, TSUBAKI, LAURA MERCIER, and ISSEY MIYAKE. It sells its products in over 120 countries worldwide, including the U.S., India, China, Canada, Italy, and Japan.
Revlon Consumer Products LLC, an American multinational, manufactures and markets beauty care products, including cosmetics, hair care, skincare, and fragrances. It operates a diverse portfolio of 15+ brands, distributing its products in over 150 countries. Its global reach enables it to offer makeup products to various markets, while it actively collaborates to promote alternative testing methods and end animal testing worldwide. Prominent brands under its umbrella include Revlon, Cutex, Elizabeth Arden, Almay, and Mitchum.
Wella Company, a major player in the personal & beauty care products industry, holds a portfolio of renowned brands such as Wella Professionals, OPI, Briogeo, Sebastian Professional, Nioxin, and Clairol. OPI, caters to professionals, beginners, and DIY enthusiasts. The brand is well known for its trendy colors and distinctive names. The brand has a presence in over 100 countries, providing a range of products such as nail polish, acrylics, nail treatments, base & top coats, manicure/pedicure essentials, files, tools, and many others. It actively participates in fundraising and awareness initiatives for various charities through retail partnerships and grassroots philanthropic efforts.
L'Oréal Groupe manufactures, retails, and markets products related to hair color, skincare, sun protection, makeup, perfume, and beauty care. The company has a vast portfolio of 34 international brands, which include Lancôme, Giorgio Armani Beauty, Diesel, Kiehl’s, Ralph Lauren, Yves Saint Laurent Beauté, Essie, Kérastase, Shu Uemura, and Viktor & Rolf, among others. L'Oréal Groupe ensures product safety through rigorous ingredient analysis, safe dose determination, in vitro and clinical studies, and post-marketing surveillance. It maintains supplier relationships, performs regulatory inspections, and conducts quality controls at every production stage for quality assurance.
Coty Inc. is a manufacturer, designer, distributor, and retailer of fragrances, cosmetics, skincare, nail care, and hair care products. The company sells a wide range of products under 77 brands, which are segmented into Coty Luxury and Coty Consumer Beauty. The Coty Luxury segment has high-end brands such as Marc Jacobs, Calvin Klein, Balenciaga, Tiffany & Co, Chloé, Gucci, Hugo Boss, Bottega Veneta, Davidoff, Alexander McQueen, Burberry, and Miu. Coty Consumer Beauty includes global brands such as Clairol, COVERGIRL, Max Factor, Sally Hansen, Rimmel, Adidas, and Nautica. Coty.
Art of Beauty Inc. offers one of the most innovative professional beauty products. The brands under the company include Zoya, Qtica, Smart Spa, and Zoom. Additionally, brands such as ZOYA Nail Lacquers, Art of Beauty QTICA Treatments, and QTICA SMART SPA, offer top-quality nail care products and nail polish to salons and spas. The company is known to remove toxic ingredients such as DBP (dibutyl phthalate), camphor, formaldehyde resin, formaldehyde, and toluene from its formulations.
butter LONDON offers innovative products and formulations that are not harmful, such as color repertoire for eyes, lip & face, using the same ingenious carcinogen-free Crafted with Care approach to formulations. The company offers products for nails, eyes, lips, face, and body. Its patented Shock Resistance Polymer Technology in all the nail products is used to deliver a gel-like finish after applying the nail lacquer.
ella+mila, Inc. is a manufacturer of beauty care products, makeup, nail products, and accessories. The company offers high-quality and eco-friendly nail products that are free of 17 chemical ingredients. Additionally, the products are PETA-certified. It also releases a new collection of nail lacquer every month.
Supply Side Estimates
Company revenue estimation via referring to annual reports, investor presentations, and Hoover’s.
Segment revenue determination via variable analysis and penetration modeling.
Competitive benchmarking to identify market leaders and their collective revenue shares.
Forecasting via analyzing commercialization rates, pipelines, market initiatives, distribution networks, etc.
Demand side estimates
Identifying parent markets and ancillary markets
Segment penetration analysis to obtain pertinent
Heuristic forecasting with the help of subject matter experts
Forecasting via variable analysis
Understanding market dynamics (in terms of drivers, restraints, & opportunities) in the countries.
Understanding trends & variables in the individual countries & their impact on growth and using analytical tools to provide high-level insights into the market dynamics and the associated growth pattern.
Understanding market estimates and forecasts (with the base year as 2023, historic information from 2018 - 2022, and forecast from 2024 to 2030). Regional estimates & forecasts for each category are available and are summed up to form the global market estimates.
The report provides market value for the base year 2023 and a yearly forecast till 2030 in terms of revenue/volume or both. The market for each of the segment outlooks has been provided on region & country basis for the above-mentioned forecast period.
The key industry dynamics, major technological trends, and application markets are evaluated to understand their impact on the demand for the forecast period. The growth rates were estimated using correlation, regression, and time-series analysis.
We have used the bottom-up approach for market sizing, analyzing key regional markets, dynamics, & trends for various products and end-users. The total market has been estimated by integrating the country markets.
All market estimates and forecasts have been validated through primary interviews with the key industry participants.
Inflation has not been accounted for to estimate and forecast the market.
Numbers may not add up due to rounding off.
Europe consists of EU-8, Central & Eastern Europe, along with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Asia Pacific includes South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania (Australia & New Zealand).
Latin America includes Central American countries and the South American continent
Middle East includes Western Asia (as assigned by the UN Statistics Division) and the African continent.
GVR strives to procure the latest and unique information for reports directly from industry experts, which gives it a competitive edge. Quality is of utmost importance to us, therefore every year we focus on increasing our experts’ panel. Primary interviews are one of the critical steps in identifying recent market trends and scenarios. This process enables us to justify and validate our market estimates and forecasts to our clients. With more than 8,000 reports in our database, we have connected with some key opinion leaders across various domains, including healthcare, technology, consumer goods, and the chemical sector. Our process starts with identifying the right platform for a particular type of report, i.e., emails, LinkedIn, seminars, or telephonic conversation, as every report is unique and requires a differentiated approach.
We send out questionnaires to different experts from various regions/ countries, which is dependent on the following factors:
Report/Market scope: If the market study is global, we send questionnaires to industry experts across various regions, including North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and MEA.
Market Penetration: If the market is driven by technological advancements, population density, disease prevalence, or other factors, we identify experts and send out questionnaires based on region or country dominance.
The time to start receiving responses from industry experts varies based on how niche or well-penetrated the market is. Our reports include a detailed chapter on the KoL opinion section, which helps our clients understand the perspective of experts already in the market space.
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