The global tobacco market size is expected to reach USD 1,049.9 billion by 2030, according to a new report by Grand View Research, Inc. The market is projected to expand at a CAGR of 2.4% from 2022 to 2030. The growing demand from developing nations, coupled with the rising proliferation of next-generation products across the globe is driving the market growth. The high marketing expenditure and product discounts by major tobacco companies are further driving the industry growth.
Consumption of tobacco through cigarettes has been the predominant factor driving the market growth. According to a World Health Organization (WHO) report in 2019, more than 80% of tobacco users live in low- and middle-income countries. Government cessation policies have been unable to help people stop tobacco use. The demand for the product is inelastic, which is expected to drive market growth. The introduction of next-generation products by major manufacturers is another factor expected to fuel the growth.
The cigarettes segment led the market with the largest revenue share in 2021. However, the Next-generation Products (NGPs) segment is projected to register the fastest growth during the forecast period. The introduction of e-cigarettes, vape, and oral nicotine products among others is driving the tobacco demand, especially among millennials and young people. Major tobacco companies are also stepping up their strategies to incorporate the growing trend of NGPs. For instance, in March 2021, Phillip Morris International announced its strategy to focus extensively on deriving more than 50% sales through smoke-free heated products.
The offline segment accounted for the largest market share in 2021 and is expected to maintain its dominance during the forecast period. The offline category which includes supermarket and hypermarkets, smoke stores, and convenience stores among others have accounted for the largest revenue share due to the large volume of stores spread across the world, as well as the convenience they offer.
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The next-generation products segment is projected to register the fastest CAGR during the forecast period as all the major companies are diversifying their product portfolios to include more smoke-free and heated tobacco offerings
Offline channel held the largest market share in 2021 due to the large presence of convenience stores across the globe, offering instant services at close proximities
Asia Pacific is expected to continue leading the market with the largest revenue share during the forecast period. The rising number of the working population and the resultant addition of tobacco consumers are expected to drive the growth
Grand View Research has segmented the global tobacco market based on product, distribution channel, and region:
Tobacco Product Outlook (Revenue, USD Billion, 2017 - 2030)
Cigar & Cigarillos
Next Generation Products
Tobacco Distribution channel Outlook (Revenue, USD Billion, 2017 - 2030)
Tobacco Regional Outlook (Revenue, USD Billion, 2017 - 2030)
Central & South America
Middle East & Africa
List of Key Players in the Tobacco Market
Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S
Swedish Match AB
Altria Group, Inc.
Philip Morris Products S.A.
British American Tobacco
Japan Tobacco Inc.
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