Diesel Fuel Market (2025 - 2030) Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report By Application (Passenger Vehicles, Commercial Vehicles), By End-user (Transportation Industry, Marine Industry), By Region (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific), And Segment Forecasts

Diesel Fuel Market Summary

The global diesel fuel market size was estimated at USD 241.41 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 306.02 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 4.1% from 2025 to 2030. The increasing usage of diesel fuel in industrial applications and the availability of diesel manufacturing facilities around the globe are projected to boost the market over the forecasted period.

The U.S. market is predicted to experience significant growth in recent years, with several factors driving this expansion. The U.S. has a strong transportation sector, including trucks, buses, and trains that run on diesel fuel.

E-commerce expansion, increased demand for goods transportation, and long-haul trucking are major drivers of diesel fuel use in this industry. Diesel fuel is commonly utilized in construction and manufacturing to power heavy machinery, generators, and equipment. The expansion of mining activities and the requirement for dependable power generation are likely to drive product demand, boosting market growth in the coming years.

The country has a wide network of refineries that convert crude oil into various petroleum products such as diesel fuel. According to the US Energy Information Administration, the three US refineries produced approximately 1.75 billion barrels (73.46 billion gallons) of ULSD. In the United States, total ULSD consumption for all applications was approximately 1.44 billion barrels (60.30 billion gallons). 

Market Drivers, Opportunities, and Restraints

The global transportation sector, particularly heavy-duty vehicles, railways, and marine transport, relies heavily on diesel due to its high energy density and efficiency. In developing regions, diesel remains the dominant fuel for freight and public transport, supporting the growth of logistics networks and trade. This sustained demand ensures diesel’s relevance in both domestic and cross-border commerce.

In emerging economies, growing urbanization and infrastructure development are driving diesel consumption. Diesel is the primary fuel for powering construction machinery and transport vehicles involved in large-scale projects. Countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America present opportunities for diesel suppliers to expand their footprint as these regions scale up industrialization and urban growth.

Diesel combustion releases nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter, contributing to air pollution and public health concerns. Governments around the world are implementing strict emission regulations and carbon reduction targets, which are pushing industries to shift toward cleaner alternatives. These regulatory pressures are limiting diesel's long-term viability in several sectors.

End-user Insights

The transportation industry dominated the end-use segment and accounted for the largest market share of over 44.50% in terms of revenue in 2024. Diesel fuel is a major fuel source for heavy-duty trucks, which play an essential role in the global transportation of products. Heavy-duty vehicles such as buses, trucks, and locomotives mostly use diesel fuel. Diesel engines are well-known for their high power output and fuel efficiency, making them ideal for various applications.

Government organizations, such as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), enforce stringent emissions requirements and fuel efficiency restrictions, which push the adoption of cleaner diesel technologies and more fuel-efficient engines in the transportation industry. Furthermore, diesel fuel is a substantial cost for transportation firms, and supply chain management efficiency can help limit costs. These factors are expected to increase demand for diesel fuel during the forecast period.

Application Insights

Commercial vehicles dominated the application segment and accounted for the largest revenue share of over 61.0% in 2024, attributable to a higher quantity of automobile and truck fleet as compared to the other end users. Expanding the on-road fleet of cars, buses, and trucks is expected to improve diesel fuel sales in the coming years. Other diesel fuel alternatives, such as gasoline, have applications in automobiles, but diesel fuel is less expensive than gasoline.

Commercial vehicles, such as delivery trucks and utility vehicles, may rely on diesel generators for backup power during emergencies and outages. The dynamics of the commercial trucking industry, such as freight demand, shipping quantities, and regulatory requirements, substantially impact diesel fuel usage. Economic factors such as GDP growth, e-commerce trends, and industrial production influence demand for trucking services and, as a result, boost the demand for diesel fuels.

In addition, passenger vehicles are likely to witness significant growth in the coming years owing to rapid urbanization and the growth of the automotive industry worldwide. However, owing to rising concerns related to carbon emissions, governments around the world are focusing on encouraging the use of electric vehicles. As a result, sales of electric cars, mostly passenger vehicles, are increasing at a moderate rate. The rise in electric vehicle sales is likely to hamper the growth of the diesel fuel industry over the forecast period.

Regional Insights

Asia Pacific dominated the market with the largest regional share of 30% in 2024. In 2025, the Asia Pacific diesel fuel market exhibits a nuanced consumption trend shaped by various regional factors. While diesel remains vital for transportation, construction, and power generation, its consumption patterns are evolving. In China, diesel demand has shown signs of peaking, influenced by the rapid adoption of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in trucking and a surge in electric vehicle (EV) sales. Notably, LNG trucks accounted for 42% of heavy truck sales in 2024, leading to a 6% drop in diesel consumption in July of that year. The International Energy Agency anticipates China's diesel consumption to peak in 2025. Conversely, India continues to experience growth in diesel demand, projected to rise by 4% to 6% in fiscal year 2026, driven by increased vehicle sales and infrastructure development. However, the region's overall diesel consumption is tempered by factors such as refinery maintenance and reduced demand in major exporters like India, China, and Singapore, leading to a four-year low in refined fuel imports in April 2025. These dynamics underscore a transitional phase in the Asia Pacific diesel market, with traditional consumption patterns being reshaped by technological advancements and policy shifts.

North America Diesel Fuel Market Trends

The diesel fuel market in North America is expected to grow significantly over the forecast period. In 2025, North America's diesel fuel consumption exhibits a nuanced pattern influenced by seasonal factors, industrial activity, and the growing adoption of renewable alternatives. During the winter months, particularly in the U.S. Northeast, frigid temperatures significantly boosted heating oil demand, leading to a notable increase in diesel consumption. Specifically, the four-week average of distillate product supplied rose to 3.9 million barrels per day, marking a 9% increase from the previous year. This surge was primarily driven by heightened heating requirements, which in turn elevated U.S. East Coast diesel refining margins to an 11-month high and increased export levels from the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Europe Diesel Fuel Market Trends

The diesel fuel market in Europe is experiencing a sustained decline in consumption, driven by structural shifts in energy usage, transportation trends, and regulatory policies by 2025. In 2024, diesel consumption in OECD Europe fell by 2.6% year-over-year, with significant reductions observed in major economies such as Germany and France. This downturn is attributed to factors including the increasing adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles, economic headwinds, and a concerted push towards decarbonization. Notably, diesel vehicle registrations have decreased, with diesel-powered cars accounting for only 13.2% of new car sales in Western Europe as of October 2024. In addition, refinery closures and conversions to biofuel production are reshaping the supply landscape, further influencing market dynamics. Despite these challenges, diesel remains integral in certain sectors, such as heavy-duty transportation and specific industrial applications, but its overall market share continues to wane amid the broader energy transition.

Latin America Diesel Fuel Market Trends

The diesel fuel market in Latin America exhibits varied trends across the region in 2025. Brazil, the largest consumer, anticipates a 1.9% increase in diesel demand, propelled by a robust soybean harvest and ongoing infrastructure projects. However, limited refining capacity and scheduled maintenance have constrained domestic production, leading to sustained high import levels, particularly from Russia, which supplied approximately 65% of Brazil's diesel imports in 2024. In Mexico, delays in the operationalization of the Olmeca refinery have necessitated continued diesel imports to prevent potential fuel shortages, with the state energy company Pemex seeking additional import deals to meet 2025 demand.

Meanwhile, Bolivia faces an energy crisis, relying heavily on diesel imports as domestic production covers only a fraction of its needs. This prompts increased fuel shipments from Russia to alleviate shortages affecting sectors like agriculture. Overall, while diesel remains integral to transportation and industry in Latin America, the region's dependence on imports underscores the challenges posed by refining limitations and the need for diversified energy strategies.

Middle East & Africa Diesel Fuel Market Trends

The diesel fuel market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) in 2025 exhibits a multifaceted landscape, shaped by infrastructure developments, economic growth, and energy security concerns. In Africa, nations like Angola are investing in refining capabilities to reduce reliance on imports; for instance, the Lobito Refinery project aims to process up to 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, enhancing local diesel production. Similarly, Nigeria's Dangote Refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, is anticipated to commence diesel exports, although full-scale operations may face delays. These initiatives reflect a regional push towards self-sufficiency in diesel fuel supply.

Key Diesel Fuel Company Insights

The global market is highly competitive due to major industries across the region, as these companies are comparatively concentrated and fiercely competitive, along with acquisitions, mergers, and collaborations. For instance, in October 2024, Repsol introduced Nexa, a new commercial brand for its premium diesel fuel from renewable sources. This 100% renewable diesel will be available at Repsol service stations starting in 2024. Nexa is designed to offer a cleaner alternative to conventional diesel, helping reduce carbon emissions without compromising engine performance. The fuel is produced using advanced technologies that convert sustainable raw materials into high-quality diesel suitable for all diesel engines.

Diesel Fuel Market Report Scope

Global Diesel Fuel Market Report Segmentation

This report forecasts volume & revenue growth at the global, regional, and country levels and provides an analysis of the latest industry trends in each of the sub-segments from 2018 to 2030. For this study, Grand View Research has segmented the global diesel fuel market report based on application, end-user, and region:

• Application Outlook (Volume, Million Liters; Revenue, USD Billion, 2018 - 2030)

  • Passenger Vehicles

  • Commercial Vehicles

• End-user Outlook (Volume, Million Liters; Revenue, USD Billion, 2018 - 2030)

  • Transportation Industry

  • Marine Industry

  • Others

• Regional Outlook (Volume, Million Liters; Revenue, USD Billion, 2018 - 2030)

  • North America

    • U.S.

    • Canada

    • Mexico

  • Europe

    • Germany

    • UK

    • France

    • Italy

    • Spain

    • Netherlands

  • Asia Pacific

    • China

    • India

    • Japan

    • South Korea

    • Australia

    • Malaysia

    • Singapore

    • Thailand

    • Vietnam

  • Latin America

    • Brazil

    • Argentina

  • Middle East and Africa

    • Saudi Arabia

    • UAE

    • South Africa