HVAC Systems Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report By Product (Heating, Ventilation, Cooling), By End-use (Residential, Commercial, Industrial), By Region (North America, Europe, APAC, South America, MEA), And Segment Forecasts, 2024 - 2030

HVAC Systems Market Size & Trends

The global HVAC systems market size was estimated at USD 150.9 billion in 2023 and is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5% from 2024 to 2030. Varied climatic conditions and the importance of maintaining an ambient environment in buildings are key trends anticipated to impact the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems industry during the projection period. In recent years, the presence of smart features and energy efficiency have become key purchase criteria for a majority of customers, and the trend is expected to gain traction in the coming years. Although prospects look supportive, supply chain shortages amidst the COVID-19 pandemic impacted the market for HVAC systems in 2020; however, the market recovered from the third quarter of 2020 onwards as manufacturing activities gradually resumed after strict lockdown norms were lifted.

In Asia Pacific, the market for HVAC systems is anticipated to witness healthy growth over a mid-term period. An increase in multi-family and individual homeowners is creating avenues for future growth. The HVAC industry is gradually shifting focus on energy efficiency. Green initiatives are focus areas for several OEMs with an emphasis on saving money while reducing greenhouse emissions. Therefore, over the recent years, there has been a shift toward eco-friendly HVAC units. This includes products that consume less power and operate on renewable sources of energy thereby reducing energy costs.

In the last few years, the use of geothermal cooling and heating equipment has been on the rise, subsequently reducing dependence on fuel-based equipment. Customer inclination towards comfort is creating avenues for growth. To meet demand, OEMs are developing products that are not just energy-efficient but also incorporate the latest technologies offering better connectivity. Today, buildings constructed are “green” resulting in an increase in installations of thermostats, sensors, and smart meters that can be controlled from a smartphone or PC. The software-enabled HVAC systems are also trending and are expected to create opportunities over the forecast period. Technology is slowly making inroads in the HVAC field, creating favorable long-term growth avenues.

Market Dynamics

Global increased spending in residential, commercial, and industrial building & construction sectors coupled with the development of sustainable and energy-efficient building design is anticipated to fuel the demand for energy-efficient HVAC systems.

Several HVAC system manufacturing organizations are focused on developing products based on the convenience of the user to enhance the overall experience. The emphasis on user convenience drives technological advancements in HVAC systems by introducing innovative and smart products. Such continuous effects towards new product development, and research & development are anticipated to propel the demand for the global market in the coming years.

Product Insights

Based on product, the global market has been segmented into heating, ventilation, and cooling. The cooling segment dominated the market for HVAC systems and held the largest revenue share of 54.9% in 2023. According to the data published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), cooling accounts for over 10% of the world’s electricity consumption. Statistics are huge and probably explain why the cooling segment has dominated the HVAC (Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) market over the years. Growing population and disposable incomes particularly in hotter regions globally have instigated usage of air conditioners, subsequently favoring demand for cooling systems such as air conditioners (AC), unitary ACs, etc. The cooling segment is projected to grow at an approximate CAGR of 6.7% from 2024 to 2030.

Apart from cooling, heating is a major segment, exhibiting gradual growth over the years. As of 2023, the heating segment held over 28.1% of the market share. The segment over the long term is projected to gain traction as the market gradually transitions from a fuel-based working model to efficient low-carbon solutions. Furthermore, a proliferation of solar-based heat pumps will also create avenues for segment growth over the forecast period.

End-use Insights

Based on end-use, the market is segregated into residential, commercial, and industrial segments. The residential segment dominated the market for HVAC systems and held the largest revenue share of 39.8% in 2023. An increase in multi-family and individual homeowners is creating avenues for the residential HVAC segment. In 2021, the segment was approximately estimated at more than USD 50.0 billion. In developed parts of the world, demand for residential HVAC is expected to be more or less stagnant; however, demand from newer markets particularly developing markets will be slightly on the higher end. This is primarily ascribed to the growing population in emerging markets and market maturity in developed markets.

Commercial HVAC space offers huge opportunities for growth. The segment is projected to grow at a CAGR exceeding 7.0% from 2024 to 2030. Several trends including green & smart technology to automated systems are expected to play a pivotal role in shaping the future of the commercial HVAC market. As the COVID-19 pandemic becomes an endemic, and permanent WFH models slowly transition to a hybrid working model, demand for HVAC in commercial settings is anticipated to witness an uptick.

Regional Insights

Asia Pacific dominated the market in 2023 with a revenue share of 46.5%. Increasing urbanization, growing population, and increasing consumer disposable income are key success factors to the region's tremendous growth over the years. Lately, the commercial sector has been growing, thus, creating prospects for future regional growth.

North America, closely followed by Europe was the second-largest consumer of HVAC systems in 2023. The market for HVAC systems as such has reached maturity; however, replacement sales due to aging infrastructure or retrofit projects are creating alternate revenue streams for OEMs apart from expansion into the services and maintenance category. The region is anticipated to witness a CAGR exceeding 6.3% over the forecast period.

Key Companies & Market Share Insights

Inorganic growth strategies have been go-to-market strategies for vendors in this space. Focus to increase market expanse and beat competition is achieved through partnerships and M&As. Technology and energy efficiency are two buzzwords that OEMS are aiming to target over a short-term period to stay relevant and profitable. Apart from growing company size and reach, market players emphasize research and development to develop technologically advanced and differentiated products to gain a competitive edge.

Companies are also focusing on developing products that comply with regional regulation norms to eliminate the risk of losing business because of regulation violations. For instance, in December 2019, Lennox International, Inc. expanded its ultra-low emission gas furnace line by introducing four furnaces, namely SL297NV, SL280NV, EL195NE, and EL180NE. New products were developed to comply with the new California South Coast Air Quality Management District’s Rule 1111 and San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District Ultra Low NOx Rule 4905, which are focused on the reduction of nitrogen oxide emission. In May 2023, Carrier Corporation introduced i-Vu Pro v8.5 for upgrading controller firmware, improving serviceability for customers, and reducing downtime of connected HVAC equipment. The latest enhancements are expected to help customers with Internet of Things (IoT) connectivity, robust security, and leading serviceability features.

HVAC Systems Market Report Scope

Global HVAC Systems Market Report Segmentation

The report forecasts revenue growth at global, regional, and country levels and provides an analysis of the latest industry trends in each of the sub-segments from 2018 to 2030. For this study, Grand View Research has segmented the global HVAC systems market report based on product, end-use, and region:

• Product Outlook (Revenue, USD Billion, 2018 - 2030)

  • Heating

  • Ventilation

  • Cooling

• End-use Outlook (Revenue, USD Billion, 2018 - 2030)

  • Residential

  • Commercial

  • Industrial

• Regional Outlook (Revenue, USD Billion, 2018 - 2030)

  • North America

    • U.S.

    • Canada

    • Mexico

  • Europe

    • U.K.

    • Germany

    • France

    • Spain

    • Italy

    • Latvia

  • Asia Pacific

    • China

    • India

    • Japan

    • South Korea

    • Australia

  • South America

    • Brazil

    • Argentina

    • Chile

  • Middle East & Africa